Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89fb4fb2267d507ca0897f70132c113ae1b1a50269aa3baa43d67ecbface95c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 58c | 336.41$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.39 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 16c | 298.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 251.53$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 47c | 180.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 172.14$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 73c | 169.57$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 147.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 38c | 145.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 31c | 144.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 134$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 126.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 33c | 121.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 119.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 70c | 113.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…6982backed Yes | 43c | 105$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 27c | 103.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 102$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc4…4089backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 93.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 85.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 80.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 79.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 41c | 69.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 30c | 65.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 28c | 56.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 55.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 74c | 47.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…392bbacked Yes | 33c | 44.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 28c | 44.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 26c | 41.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 40.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 37.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 43c | 33.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 79c | 33.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 30.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9076…f6a4backed No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 24.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 22.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f4…6daabacked No | 73c | 19.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7f…1342backed Yes | 79c | 16.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 75c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.