TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$552,407
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$656,279

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $552,407 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 260 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed BetBoom Team60c58,715$35,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,336.571,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MOUZ40c30,679$12,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,227.2971143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed MOUZ56c29,930$16,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,743.3121155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed BetBoom Team65c22,490$14,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,887.730667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed MOUZ24c15,270$3,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,721.2324153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked BetBoom Team55c12,759$7,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,739.0725446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed MOUZ28c12,663$3,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,542.1618551.4%95 W · 90 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked BetBoom Team61c11,475$6,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,479.3150347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed MOUZ44c10,615$4,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,713.757844.9%35 W · 43 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked BetBoom Team55c10,168$5,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,536.2632549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2929…1dd0backed MOUZ45c10,090$4,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,522.9716553.3%88 W · 77 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked MOUZ32c9,143$2,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.3150850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked MOUZ60c7,897$4,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,730.4453558.9%315 W · 220 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked MOUZ19c7,061$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.5935951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked BetBoom Team79c7,000$5,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47080056%448 W · 352 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked MOUZ21c7,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47023435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked MOUZ42c6,917$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,90019456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked BetBoom Team55c6,450$3,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,876.9941042.4%174 W · 236 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24fe…4f8abacked BetBoom Team52c5,819$3,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,793.471650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ33c4,487$1,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.241,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2931…7b81backed MOUZ48c4,383$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10018560.5%112 W · 73 L+12.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x191b…5b67backed MOUZ25c4,254$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.044346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked BetBoom Team72c4,234$3,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.2279159.4%470 W · 321 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed MOUZ26c4,196$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.9945750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed MOUZ46c4,020$1,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.210537.1%39 W · 66 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MOUZ49c3,931$1,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,912.311,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed MOUZ38c3,860$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.6688539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed BetBoom Team63c3,151$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.9530357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed MOUZ56c3,150$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76440051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ26c2,964$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.862,36747.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ43c2,947$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.671,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…6b9dbacked MOUZ50c2,886$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.69339.8%37 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed BetBoom Team74c2,570$1,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.1915457.1%88 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ20c2,502$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.4781029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BetBoom Team42c2,444$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.191,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed MOUZ21c2,300$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.7112640.5%51 W · 75 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked BetBoom Team54c2,202$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.6688938%338 W · 551 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0e1…b9b4backed BetBoom Team53c2,093$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.89852%51 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed MOUZ31c2,000$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.3836343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked MOUZ49c2,000$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.4932756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked MOUZ43c1,962$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84189749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked MOUZ37c1,870$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70031936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed BetBoom Team47c1,841$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.1934442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed MOUZ21c1,786$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.696841.2%28 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed MOUZ43c1,762$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.5568649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08a5…db43backed BetBoom Team68c1,744$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.277452.7%39 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed MOUZ16c1,714$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.429546.1%136 W · 159 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed BetBoom Team74c1,684$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.0850769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked MOUZ54c1,673$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.6225752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed MOUZ34c1,542$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.131,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked MOUZ28c1,506$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.5923561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked BetBoom Team41c1,500$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8806744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed MOUZ28c1,400$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39226540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked BetBoom Team60c1,250$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50053451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde24…4dedbacked MOUZ35c1,249$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.5719853%105 W · 93 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed MOUZ25c1,200$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30033951.3%174 W · 165 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed BetBoom Team75c1,197$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.2965441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed BetBoom Team77c1,190$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.779559.4%472 W · 323 L+3.7wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dc5…c07dbacked MOUZ71c1,135$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.512263.1%77 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked BetBoom Team75c1,110$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.7894442.3%399 W · 545 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed BetBoom Team70c999.99$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30014646.6%68 W · 78 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed BetBoom Team50c999.99$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50031444.9%141 W · 173 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked MOUZ24c963.39$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23048843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked BetBoom Team79c934.44$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5435361.2%216 W · 137 L-0.7wins0.00per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed MOUZ42c915.02$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.9147348.2%228 W · 245 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed BetBoom Team69c895.61$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.4292846.2%429 W · 499 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed MOUZ24c823$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.529644.8%43 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed MOUZ38c813.96$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.720642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked MOUZ24c808$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7631953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked MOUZ47c784.79$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.9450749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked BetBoom Team80c750$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15027060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa425…52fabacked BetBoom Team80c735.09$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.02944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked MOUZ47c703.18$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33012252.5%64 W · 58 L+17.2wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+19.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed MOUZ42c693.23$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.5765647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed MOUZ11c691.93$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.437634.2%26 W · 50 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed MOUZ29c690.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20029240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed MOUZ24c647.72$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.8447748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked BetBoom Team64c629.99$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.959154%319 W · 272 L+0.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed MOUZ43c628.42$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.9845352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc444…416cbacked BetBoom Team52c581.38$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.3817550.9%89 W · 86 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed BetBoom Team59c566.66$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.9246664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa949…7f5bbacked MOUZ59c565.97$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33519849%97 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2262…ef1cbacked MOUZ32c560.46$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.973540%14 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41cd…1e8cbacked BetBoom Team79c557.03$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.183464.7%22 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed BetBoom Team60c552.95$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.0725266.3%167 W · 85 L+20.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e3b…be27backed BetBoom Team55c549.62$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.1721047.6%100 W · 110 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ27c500.3$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.791,89447.7%903 W · 991 L+6.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed BetBoom Team80c500$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.553764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked BetBoom Team80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10017965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked BetBoom Team73c499.99$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.291756.5%518 W · 399 L+79.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc9bb…9a49backed BetBoom Team55c458.66$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.661163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed BetBoom Team62c449.98$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.4912966.7%86 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked MOUZ34c443.03$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.2687838.3%336 W · 542 L-42.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked MOUZ41c439.7$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.4556343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed MOUZ37c437.99$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.841,11336.2%403 W · 710 L-37.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed BetBoom Team71c420$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.845457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked MOUZ49c408.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7233…2e7bbacked MOUZ49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005048%24 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2172…5cdabacked MOUZ49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c24…8382backed MOUZ7c402.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302425%6 W · 18 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-41.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.