Movies · resolved market
Will "The Dinosaurs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a98fe202a2d217bbbf10294a4033a582f7b5bd660428dfaeb8af9441d4c7af8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,614 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 65c | 1,537$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.22 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 5c | 890.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 24c | 349$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 76c | 349$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.76 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 79c | 320.81$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 28c | 305.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed No | 16c | 304$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed No | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 289.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed No | 16c | 269$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 43cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…2e24backed No | 5c | 210.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4162…9076backed No | 48c | 210.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 12c | 199.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 28c | 175.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 164$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 8c | 158.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed No | 31c | 142.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…b8b2backed No | 40c | 140$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad8…4998backed No | 14c | 137.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed No | 9c | 129.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 13c | 91.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 34c | 73.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 38c | 69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed No | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked No | 59c | 59.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 76c | 53.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 50.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 50.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…125bbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 49.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 29c | 37.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 57c | 22.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Dinosaurs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Night Agent: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Vladimir" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.