TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,923
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,095

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,923 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes27c1,203$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.921,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes25c653.27$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.638,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes26c581.75$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.928,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes31c464.16$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.5710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb567…1575backed No65c441.33$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.96560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid+6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No72c293.23$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.832,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No52c287.8$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.752,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No73c220.71$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.033,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed No73c216.5$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.868848.9%43 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes24c209.24$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.021,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No57c203.05$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.253,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes76c188.91$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4613588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes26c182.79$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.391,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c179.71$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.075,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No79c172.14$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3992678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No40c148$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.495,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No45c136.59$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.086,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No78c128.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011965.5%78 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No61c120.11$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.375,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes43c118.22$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6989544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No19c114.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.764,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes34c110.94$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.76,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No68c101.3$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.624,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No28c100.27$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4876924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7872837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.854234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No68c97.7$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.24,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8f…1b4fbacked No16c95.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15671.5%1 W · 66 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No55c94.19$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.931,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes39c93$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.731,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c89.69$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.229,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No59c86.52$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.362,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No73c80$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.455954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No39c79.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.353,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No16c73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.784,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No79c63.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.384,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No73c63.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.454,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No73c60.35$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.214,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No61c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.61,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes24c59.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.292,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c0…53d5backed Yes30c57.84$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.497847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c56.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.977,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes29c55.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.32,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes26c55.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6459144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes29c53.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6843441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0751…073abacked Yes27c51.87$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6619255.2%106 W · 86 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No49c46.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0239956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes29c46.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8745253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No29c43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.443,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes30c40.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4221964.8%142 W · 77 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No78c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.349675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No70c39.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.193,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked Yes39c39.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.292761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No75c39.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3697152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b35…bb20backed Yes64c38.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.968263.4%52 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e07…d211backed Yes32c37.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.572642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes50c36.83$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.422,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No65c30.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.961,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…db74backed Yes80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626025%65 W · 195 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes39c29.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4440741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xac22…363ebacked Yes40c29.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9914243.7%62 W · 80 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No76c29.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes49c29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.792,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9a…8193backed Yes70c28.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.452050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c27.8$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No80c26.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.561,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.12,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed No78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.68469%58 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f0…7d92backed No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.855444.4%24 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No80c18.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.581,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No69c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.424,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No68c17.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xced6…2dc1backed No73c16.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8428068.6%192 W · 88 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No66c15.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0766944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No75c14.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No78c12.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0562275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.