Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5df946de38b1a75433e1bf2ad32cba3116e175447727b4b289328eabaee92cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed No | 56c | 2,475$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.49 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes | 16c | 889.82$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.26 | 67 | 1.5%1 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 43c | 391.54$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 379.56$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 40c | 315.42$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 301.38$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 287.8$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 272.37$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 251.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 239.98$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 219.95$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 43c | 219$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 43c | 218$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 43c | 211.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 145.21$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 46c | 142.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 42c | 138.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 41c | 136.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 131$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 42c | 128$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 120.83$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 116.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 59c | 114.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 97.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 48c | 96.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 42c | 95.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 94.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked Yes | 43c | 90.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 38c | 89.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 69c | 84.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…0d83backed No | 64c | 81.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 64c | 78.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 36c | 71.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 71.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 37c | 65.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 63.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 59.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 59.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 44c | 52.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 50c | 48.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 69c | 44.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…5393backed Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…2e72backed Yes | 79c | 37.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 37.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…d211backed Yes | 35c | 37.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 79c | 36.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 53c | 36.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 45c | 30.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 59c | 30.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 35c | 29.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 29.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 43c | 29.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 37c | 27.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 65c | 20.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 89°F or below on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 100-101°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.