Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b53826b3f082bd8d7790db62df36810463bcd0f87db108ae3dcfdd38780aae4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 27c | 1,652$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.24 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 55c | 1,000$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.89 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 72c | 730.35$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.86 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 20c | 706.66$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.94 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 4c | 605.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 31c | 558.77$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.55 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 427$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 420.44$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 20c | 403.44$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.69 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 379.53$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 69c | 375$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 65c | 309.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.73 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 279.22$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 15c | 278.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 30c | 229.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.61 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 71c | 196.03$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 29c | 192$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 170.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 65c | 150.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 136.7$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 116.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 80c | 115.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 75c | 90.22$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 48c | 79.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 79.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 22c | 74.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 77c | 65.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 31c | 64.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 25c | 58.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 25c | 55.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 45.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 29c | 42.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 39.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 80c | 34.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x257a…5d9bbacked No | 73c | 34.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5686…690abacked Yes | 79c | 31.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 25.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 23.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7da…138cbacked Yes | 79c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 19.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…4d78backed Yes | 77c | 16.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…de48backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 78c | 13.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.