Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a49cad64c46ea5fc84f7ba4866b3e60bfeafecba35db6cfc41f5ccd2a73677c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 75c | 1,581$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.96 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 10c | 1,535$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 58c | 1,290$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.44 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 1,070$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.66 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 416$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 276.8$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 266.41$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 235$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 212.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 186.64$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 154.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 42c | 126.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 114.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…bdc6backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 40c | 76.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 66.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 61.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 57.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 37c | 48.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 50c | 47.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 45c | 45.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…56e0backed Yes | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 47c | 38.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 44c | 34.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 54c | 34.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 47c | 31.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 49c | 31.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 29.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 51c | 27.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 50c | 24.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 50c | 21.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.