Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b56d98075e6a3059a757c78c2b98f0dcf70dcf8cf1914d9c2748383b1355943
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4789…994abacked Yes | 76c | 1,312$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…9384backed No | 37c | 1,081$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 40c | 805.04$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.22 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 33c | 525.26$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.04 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 59c | 509.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.41 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 41c | 400.27$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.72 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 69c | 398.42$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.42 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…87dcbacked Yes | 66c | 385.65$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +147.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57bb…9302backed Yes | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…ee20backed Yes | 59c | 334.29$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.06 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes | 66c | 254.55$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.55 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 25c | 247.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 63c | 212.49$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked No | 52c | 197.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 60c | 194.44$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Yes | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Yes | 64c | 159.6$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20b…3ae4backed Yes | 64c | 117.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 29c | 111.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 58c | 101.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d74…0324backed Yes | 77c | 68.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked No | 28c | 64.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed No | 31c | 64.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…f166backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3548…0ebbbacked Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…5529backed No | 44c | 44.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 55c | 44.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes | 66c | 44.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…f166backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…cc73backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 54c | 28.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +8.8wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 72c | 22.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Yes | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…b088backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 51c | 19.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.