Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e7b0276178ab33ee99237d935b6e09edcb7c5252085d6b0192a6f861cff9e15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 37c | 6,686$2,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,211.87 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 5,331$3,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,506.92 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 61c | 4,259$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.97 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…c6b1backed Over | 40c | 3,134$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.79 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 36c | 2,804$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.26 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 2,715$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.95 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 27c | 2,500$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,825 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 68c | 2,329$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 63c | 1,390$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.1 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 55c | 1,121$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.61 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Over | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 67c | 985.83$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.02 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Under | 12c | 832.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Over | 28c | 800$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 61c | 717.96$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.88 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 54c | 599.99$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 30c | 492$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.92 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 477.52$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.35 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Under | 56c | 464.29$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa00…f736backed Under | 53c | 460.38$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 62c | 372.1$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.7 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 63c | 344.52$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.05 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 37c | 323$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.52 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 34c | 322.73$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 7c | 315.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Over | 33c | 298.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1548…fe8ebacked Under | 55c | 260.24$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.13 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 34c | 233.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 171$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 38c | 135.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…a10ebacked Under | 29c | 124.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Under | 59c | 120$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 70c | 114.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 67c | 104.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…c2d0backed Over | 45c | 88.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 55c | 88.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 41c | 88.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Under | 14c | 88.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e6…b9f9backed Under | 61c | 88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 25c | 81.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 33c | 75.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 62c | 74.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17c7…4471backed Under | 60c | 71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 55c | 68.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 38c | 67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…c99abacked Under | 58c | 65.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 53c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…007abacked Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Over | 32c | 62.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Over | 37c | 62.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 80c | 61.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 57c | 61.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 27c | 50.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 32c | 44.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed Over | 36c | 39.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b1…d4d4backed Under | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 39c | 38.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 67c | 29.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 45c | 28.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…6bffbacked Under | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 61c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…b692backed Under | 61c | 19.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 62c | 18.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 67c | 16.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ba…a6f6backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Under | 68c | 15.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.