Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2964a3dc9a417a182a072f1817a0e706ee8bfd926f49fb45418a05da315af5da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 20c | 4,513$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.95 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…c033backed Under | 79c | 2,385$1,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 1,339$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 80c | 1,087$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.48 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…e73fbacked Over | 39c | 919.3$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Over | 14c | 900$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 12c | 714.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 66c | 511$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.63 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 19c | 461.54$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 80c | 420$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48d8…c70fbacked Over | 27c | 353.15$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 79c | 315.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Under | 76c | 261.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91c…baa7backed Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 12c | 158.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…d300backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Over | 10c | 108.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 80c | 74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…865cbacked Under | 79c | 70.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Under | 76c | 65.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Under | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.