TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,011

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,011 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2696…c031backed Yes54c289.99$156 inWon+$134.46149.2%30 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd63d…8c40backed Yes54c202.31$110 inWon+$92.3113762.8%86 W · 51 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+21.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Yes52c159.49$83 inWon+$76.5640053.5%214 W · 186 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No44c150.27$66 inLost-$66.121,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No46c128.96$59 inLost-$58.881,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed No48c100$48 inLost-$4843052.3%225 W · 205 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked No48c83.34$40 inLost-$39.7593145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No47c65.62$31 inLost-$31.021,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked No45c55.56$25 inLost-$2519748.2%95 W · 102 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfab0…e0f5backed No48c41.05$19 inLost-$19.58658.1%50 W · 36 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No47c36.22$17 inLost-$17.129348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No48c30$14 inLost-$14.41,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No47c28.11$13 inLost-$13.274,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No50c27.94$14 inLost-$13.9717233.7%58 W · 114 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes50c27.94$14 inWon+$13.9724038.3%92 W · 148 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10a7…97d4backed Yes55c27.28$15 inWon+$12.282360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81c9…4a47backed No51c24.99$13 inLost-$12.752842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed No48c21.01$10 inLost-$10.0819950.8%101 W · 98 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43eb…336dbacked Yes52c21.01$11 inWon+$10.015971.2%42 W · 17 L+10.7wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+35.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No49c20.41$10 inLost-$1097049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.