TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Cavaliers, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$413,000

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $413,000 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed Magic51c87,863$44,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,052.9443148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Magic52c50,000$26,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,000.2948343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Cavaliers49c48,080$23,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,644.811,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Cavaliers48c43,750$21,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,999.8511443.9%50 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Magic52c38,464$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,464.0917251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Cavaliers49c28,376$13,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,904.2429351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Magic49c25,268$12,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,803.611,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Magic51c21,137$10,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,357.021,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed Cavaliers49c21,021$10,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,300.3511653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Magic50c17,589$8,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,723.861,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Cavaliers49c16,127$7,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,90034854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers48c12,223$5,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,880.89,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic49c10,515$5,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,379.724,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Cavaliers49c10,408$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10011737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Cavaliers49c9,391$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,60041649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cavaliers48c9,203$4,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,429.922,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cavaliers53c9,050$4,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,767.862,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Magic52c8,000$4,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,840.0729748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb48f…d015backed Cavaliers49c7,702$3,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,77412454.8%68 W · 56 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Cavaliers49c6,999$3,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,429.1837747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers50c6,791$3,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,380.074,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cavaliers50c5,727$2,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,857.514,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Magic51c5,646$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,766.848054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Magic50c5,104$2,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,551.912,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Magic50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Cavaliers49c5,000$2,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474.9169149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Magic51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,450.171,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Magic52c4,812$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.710553.3%56 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Cavaliers49c4,753$2,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,307.6835749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Cavaliers49c4,729$2,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,31724847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Cavaliers51c4,645$2,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,368.987850%39 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Cavaliers49c3,986$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,970.2724252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Cavaliers51c3,930$2,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,004.271,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers48c3,447$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,661.76,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Cavaliers49c3,095$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,51538143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Magic50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Cavaliers51c2,998$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.780737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers49c2,991$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.364,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers45c2,889$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.918,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Magic49c2,819$1,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.5440350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Cavaliers50c2,700$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35044252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Cavaliers49c2,587$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.519445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Magic51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,22582442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda22…6d2abacked Cavaliers49c2,452$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2009443.6%41 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xace8…4624backed Magic50c2,391$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.562133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Cavaliers49c2,100$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0299952.5%52 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.841,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc38…1e98backed Cavaliers49c2,040$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.55341.5%22 W · 31 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Magic53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.9914448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Cavaliers51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.5826637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Cavaliers49c1,947$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.1117850%89 W · 89 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed Magic52c1,927$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.7812048.3%58 W · 62 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Magic53c1,904$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.7420963.2%132 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Magic51c1,817$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.5723348.9%114 W · 119 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9083…99fabacked Magic51c1,754$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.432240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-27.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Cavaliers50c1,198$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60065339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Cavaliers51c1,177$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60028554.7%156 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x58ae…5be9backed Magic51c1,052$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.2580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+65%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Cavaliers47c1,022$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47823845%107 W · 131 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Cavaliers49c1,014$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49749246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Cavaliers50c1,000$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.0157950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Cavaliers50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013339.1%52 W · 81 L-11.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Cavaliers49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49023938.1%91 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Magic52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4806147.5%29 W · 32 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa182…03fabacked Cavaliers51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008949.4%44 W · 45 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Cavaliers51c977.89$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Cavaliers49c897.08$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.6723850%119 W · 119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Cavaliers48c895.83$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43081349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Cavaliers49c869.72$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4266241.9%26 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Magic51c849.2$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.1118343.7%80 W · 103 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Cavaliers49c817.52$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40036143.5%157 W · 204 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Cavaliers50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40031551.7%163 W · 152 L-1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95fe…3896backed Magic52c774.39$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.3917046.5%79 W · 91 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Magic51c752.94$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.946144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1748…a816backed Cavaliers49c595.09$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29117344.5%77 W · 96 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Cavaliers51c588.59$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Magic51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.2428245.4%128 W · 154 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic46c586.55$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.395,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Magic78c566.55$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.5546258.2%269 W · 193 L-0.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic50c557.28$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.333,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6734…fccebacked Cavaliers49c546.24$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.6640%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Magic50c537.72$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.92,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Cavaliers50c522.6$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.318241.2%75 W · 107 L-17.6wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b22…ba7bbacked Cavaliers46c511.82$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.251942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Cavaliers49c510.9$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011158.6%65 W · 46 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9030…cf12backed Magic52c480$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.412046.7%56 W · 64 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d61…303dbacked Magic50c466$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23310556.2%59 W · 46 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Cavaliers48c434.45$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.443,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Cavaliers49c409$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021950.2%110 W · 109 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Cavaliers49c409$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016740.1%67 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x003a…40f2backed Magic50c405.48$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a5b…1f2bbacked Magic50c405.07$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda58…83e6backed Magic50c403.07$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca5…43ffbacked Cavaliers51c402.73$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e17…6dd9backed Cavaliers51c401.54$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f65…ce32backed Cavaliers51c400.67$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f2…5ceebacked Magic50c400.63$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Cavaliers50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20028448.2%137 W · 147 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Magic49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2041,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9233…b6e1backed Cavaliers51c399.23$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.