TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs S2G Esports (BO5) - VCL Türkiye: Birlik Kickoff Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
S2G Esportsof Beşiktaş Esports, S2G Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,205 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked S2G Esports44c3,526$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,985.1719248.4%93 W · 99 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Beşiktaş Esports43c3,416$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.045650%28 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed S2G Esports56c2,899$1,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.316746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Beşiktaş Esports42c2,898$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.4533759.6%201 W · 136 L+18.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc736…e547backed Beşiktaş Esports60c2,435$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed S2G Esports50c1,620$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8103339.4%13 W · 20 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-36%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed S2G Esports41c1,057$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.5370251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed S2G Esports48c1,040$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.681,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Beşiktaş Esports50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50033348.3%161 W · 172 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Beşiktaş Esports50c999.99$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50028548.4%138 W · 147 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x953f…15e6backed Beşiktaş Esports26c961.54$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506852.9%36 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc1a…6049backed Beşiktaş Esports73c827.52$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x858e…1c3bbacked Beşiktaş Esports47c717.7$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.811963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Beşiktaş Esports35c613.75$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21519648.5%95 W · 101 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Beşiktaş Esports50c600$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.7881134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4e1…d80bbacked S2G Esports53c565.59$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.59742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed S2G Esports60c564.57$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-44%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Beşiktaş Esports17c509.77$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7388844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed S2G Esports42c500.76$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.9426634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Beşiktaş Esports41c488$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.321,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed S2G Esports49c486$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.686051.7%31 W · 29 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Beşiktaş Esports57c438.32$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed S2G Esports53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18839042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf70f…3c97backed Beşiktaş Esports72c399.33$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Beşiktaş Esports57c361$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.758837.5%33 W · 55 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-30.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked S2G Esports48c309.97$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.1861035.9%219 W · 391 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f04…1d79backed S2G Esports30c300$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick23cpaid-76.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6cb0…9a6cbacked S2G Esports54c297.21$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.57825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-61.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed S2G Esports50c282.99$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.673748.6%18 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Beşiktaş Esports27c272.28$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.485030%15 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed S2G Esports36c262.54$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.0217654.5%96 W · 80 L-0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a55…c349backed Beşiktaş Esports24c257.86$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.31216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed S2G Esports33c241.03$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.638625.6%22 W · 64 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Beşiktaş Esports71c226$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.778050%40 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…8be8backed Beşiktaş Esports66c225.86$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.0714757.8%85 W · 62 L+13.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked S2G Esports52c220.97$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2742051.9%218 W · 202 L-21.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70c2…4327backed Beşiktaş Esports6c215.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed S2G Esports46c211.23$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.2346326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Beşiktaş Esports42c210$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.253442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked S2G Esports71c200.86$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.311353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Beşiktaş Esports47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9486747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Beşiktaş Esports8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1622018.2%40 W · 180 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Beşiktaş Esports52c199.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.533753.1%179 W · 158 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed S2G Esports57c199.34$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.345257.7%30 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a2…5dfebacked Beşiktaş Esports54c184.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-64.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked S2G Esports57c176.98$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.126100%6 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+134.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Beşiktaş Esports49c162.49$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0634847.4%165 W · 183 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked S2G Esports45c155.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9962856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf08…2948backed Beşiktaş Esports76c152.19$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed S2G Esports38c137$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.9266438.1%253 W · 411 L-31.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0ad…bce9backed Beşiktaş Esports75c134.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf726…bcfebacked Beşiktaş Esports55c130$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Beşiktaş Esports53c120$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.484932.7%16 W · 33 L-6.8wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-42.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca4a…338abacked S2G Esports47c115.45$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.331662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87ba…e7eebacked Beşiktaş Esports69c114.32$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a44…27fbbacked Beşiktaş Esports69c106.83$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f4…59eabacked Beşiktaş Esports30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303228.1%9 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+88.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed S2G Esports50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502544%11 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Beşiktaş Esports57c96$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.758835.2%31 W · 57 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-32.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Beşiktaş Esports75c89.9$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.134346.5%20 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed S2G Esports20c85.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7427411.3%31 W · 243 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Beşiktaş Esports36c85.79$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.021,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35b8…898abacked S2G Esports60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x169e…de26backed Beşiktaş Esports55c79.06$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c1…1fc1backed Beşiktaş Esports71c78.9$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed S2G Esports49c78.03$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.814447.2%68 W · 76 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked S2G Esports39c76.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9215232.9%50 W · 102 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed S2G Esports46c75.62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9410959.6%65 W · 44 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7e0…a433backed Beşiktaş Esports70c71.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.031866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed S2G Esports31c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.323847.9%114 W · 124 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Beşiktaş Esports58c69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1710840.7%44 W · 64 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed S2G Esports52c67.16$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.161752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+24.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe84…54ddbacked S2G Esports34c64.2$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3718651.1%95 W · 91 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dbd…7db7backed Beşiktaş Esports52c64$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Beşiktaş Esports50c57.28$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.89742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf9a…2357backed Beşiktaş Esports67c56.59$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4255…1792backed Beşiktaş Esports49c54.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.816041.9%67 W · 93 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b82…b3b2backed Beşiktaş Esports58c51.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1963…8122backed S2G Esports50c50.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.131643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96f1…b6d8backed Beşiktaş Esports37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.514661.6%90 W · 56 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5935…85b1backed Beşiktaş Esports66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed S2G Esports31c49.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.377635.5%27 W · 49 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2020…3b53backed Beşiktaş Esports33c48.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.811127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-51.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a61…588bbacked S2G Esports36c47.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf026…ca17backed Beşiktaş Esports69c43.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a38…81abbacked Beşiktaş Esports67c42.36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed S2G Esports32c40.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7557517.7%102 W · 473 L-71.7wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9bb7…8ef9backed Beşiktaş Esports76c39.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+35.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x06fc…9b16backed Beşiktaş Esports51c39.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x893f…b1dbbacked Beşiktaş Esports65c38.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe56a…0edfbacked S2G Esports49c36.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Beşiktaş Esports31c33.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4478562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf089…55cbbacked S2G Esports55c33.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Beşiktaş Esports50c31.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc410…22ffbacked Beşiktaş Esports55c31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ec…f6e4backed S2G Esports73c30.76$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+103.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab59…0698backed S2G Esports50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed S2G Esports50c28.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.327052.9%37 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed S2G Esports52c23.31$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.196949.3%34 W · 35 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked S2G Esports61c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.669042.2%38 W · 52 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.