TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: DashSkins vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
UNO MILLEof DashSkins, UNO MILLE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$179,173
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$193,374

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,173 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbc67…5286backed UNO MILLE45c8,534$3,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,658.271,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b9f…b921backed DashSkins46c7,644$3,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,480.23525.7%9 W · 26 L-7.3wins-0.21per pick47cpaid-48.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked DashSkins63c4,829$3,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,039.783,25650.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L+97.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked UNO MILLE55c4,141$2,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,855.122,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked UNO MILLE37c3,337$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,102.6732536%117 W · 208 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed DashSkins65c2,407$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.86,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed UNO MILLE22c2,331$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,823.991,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed UNO MILLE43c2,187$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.342,42944.6%1,083 W · 1,346 L-63.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked UNO MILLE38c1,984$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.653,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed DashSkins78c1,898$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.3487244.8%391 W · 481 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed UNO MILLE43c1,787$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.1755950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed DashSkins31c1,654$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.1219850.5%100 W · 98 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed DashSkins51c1,355$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.224,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6b…a179backed UNO MILLE57c1,306$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.445349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…6d93backed UNO MILLE28c1,200$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.11850%9 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked UNO MILLE58c1,073$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.851,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed UNO MILLE36c1,033$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.8116945%76 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba31…d1dfbacked DashSkins34c957.22$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.393943.6%17 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked UNO MILLE37c872.84$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.821939.7%87 W · 132 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked DashSkins40c870.33$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.022,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5ba…06b3backed DashSkins54c827.83$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45015045.3%68 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed DashSkins50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40046749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed UNO MILLE45c778.13$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.6757641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed UNO MILLE24c717.92$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.85,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x899d…bc53backed DashSkins11c705.42$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5250%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked DashSkins43c689.96$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29943137.8%163 W · 268 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked DashSkins52c687$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.5438942.4%165 W · 224 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked UNO MILLE28c667.05$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.457,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c7…4332backed DashSkins51c635.8$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.2117644.3%78 W · 98 L-17.8wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-20.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x058e…a2acbacked DashSkins79c632.91$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004837.5%18 W · 30 L-7.9wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-33%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed DashSkins54c601$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.9129647.6%141 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked DashSkins59c591.61$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.662738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x440d…351fbacked DashSkins76c585.58$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.7850%4 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked DashSkins49c574$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.0854346.2%251 W · 292 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed DashSkins74c469.84$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.0611046.4%51 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa57…2ec9backed DashSkins33c459.7$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.373531.4%11 W · 24 L-4.7wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9a7f…dab7backed UNO MILLE53c458.58$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.1450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed DashSkins52c450$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.9924747%116 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab8a…3ff2backed DashSkins75c447.86$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick53cpaid-61.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed UNO MILLE50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20076546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed UNO MILLE41c360.05$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.7652951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked UNO MILLE26c344.96$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.431,18122.5%266 W · 915 L+3.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95a9…4352backed DashSkins79c333.57$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.263043.3%13 W · 17 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-24.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1c8…023abacked DashSkins69c324.34$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2258653.5%46 W · 40 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-16.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x74bb…1759backed DashSkins47c320.89$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed DashSkins42c308.02$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.325,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf8a8…48c0backed DashSkins59c297.59$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.9825251.2%129 W · 123 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed UNO MILLE21c288.9$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.238639.5%34 W · 52 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked DashSkins49c280$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.9449745.9%228 W · 269 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fb3…8649backed DashSkins73c273.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed DashSkins19c266$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6145224.3%110 W · 342 L-52.4wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb6ed…5dc7backed DashSkins78c255.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed DashSkins17c245.3$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3414137.6%53 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed UNO MILLE21c244$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.6233327.9%93 W · 240 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbff…e8e7backed UNO MILLE74c232.84$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.14666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+117%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d0e…13aabacked DashSkins60c221.59$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.9515638.5%60 W · 96 L-19.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x69e4…9bacbacked UNO MILLE34c212.94$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.5919745.7%90 W · 107 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed DashSkins59c212.89$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.031637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed DashSkins68c202.94$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9428549.5%141 W · 144 L+1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x917d…9429backed DashSkins18c201.64$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.817537.3%28 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf11a…1002backed UNO MILLE33c200.91$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.6127548.7%134 W · 141 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed UNO MILLE28c199.21$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.4351055.9%285 W · 225 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5569…c927backed UNO MILLE58c182.87$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.754351.2%22 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x016c…fd1bbacked DashSkins69c176.71$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.82425%6 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid+20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x523e…3128backed UNO MILLE48c175.06$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.0415544.5%69 W · 86 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ff…6431backed DashSkins61c166.45$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1723165.8%152 W · 79 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8384…1af4backed UNO MILLE61c159.06$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.781872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e2b…7fc1backed UNO MILLE55c156.36$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.364463.6%28 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked DashSkins61c155.61$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9236151.8%187 W · 174 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed UNO MILLE21c149.98$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4954032.4%175 W · 365 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90eb…db79backed UNO MILLE72c149.17$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.042454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked DashSkins9c149$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9136334.2%124 W · 239 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked DashSkins45c148.43$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.137744.2%34 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed UNO MILLE52c146$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.722,34346.7%1,094 W · 1,249 L-49.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed UNO MILLE21c145$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.551,06937.8%404 W · 665 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d62…5409backed DashSkins69c144.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048562.7%304 W · 181 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked UNO MILLE44c141.67$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.648319%92 W · 391 L-65.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-46.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked UNO MILLE24c140.72$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.821,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bc…efbebacked UNO MILLE27c138.28$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed UNO MILLE48c137.37$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7828434.9%99 W · 185 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked UNO MILLE43c137.33$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.492,77037.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L-139.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8359…5944backed DashSkins9c135$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1569732%223 W · 474 L-46.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdae3…cf78backed UNO MILLE23c130.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.994436.4%16 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x101c…7e34backed UNO MILLE31c130.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.242737%10 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8f8…5a82backed DashSkins48c126.19$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.042948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+41.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed UNO MILLE62c126$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8821739.2%85 W · 132 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked UNO MILLE43c124.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.2491648.9%448 W · 468 L+4.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf138…c953backed DashSkins35c123.76$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.832552%13 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+40.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed UNO MILLE28c123.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.248535.3%30 W · 55 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf6e…c865backed DashSkins74c121$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.54862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked DashSkins57c120.93$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.155040%20 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc876…1a19backed DashSkins78c116.67$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec45…6ba6backed DashSkins65c114.37$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.993842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked UNO MILLE24c109.66$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.661,07832%345 W · 733 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c61…db4bbacked UNO MILLE46c109.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.32065%13 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fb2…eb78backed UNO MILLE24c106$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.073154.8%17 W · 14 L+6.6wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+3,274.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed DashSkins33c102.37$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.522324.7%55 W · 168 L-21.2wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-39.5%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed UNO MILLE36c102.05$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.872,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2510…60adbacked DashSkins52c100.46$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed DashSkins14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1433241.6%138 W · 194 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.