MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c0f45e3b64b78c0790e9eaecf95da4229ccfdf4e1dd482211c9a618634b9c4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 5,575$3,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,523.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 4,777$2,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,715.35 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 4,360$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.79 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ff…473dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 3,222$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,832.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 1,406$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.52 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 1,223$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.87 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 482$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.92 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 370.07$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.49 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 356.05$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 295.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.43 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 258$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.14 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 21c | 234$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Miami Marlins | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 196.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Miami Marlins | 48c | 133.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Miami Marlins | 21c | 104.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 103.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 98.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 90.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 86.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 79.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 77.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 50.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 41.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 37.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 27.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 22.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 21.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 80c | 20.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.