MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe14f319414ab62115c460f9ec41553fe1e36e10c9b40673a43214ed248708efb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Tampa Bay Rays, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 2,975$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.95 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 26c | 2,241$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.1 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc242…5cf5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 1,800$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 1,709$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.74 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 1,376$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.7 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 1,095$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.55 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 1,067$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.85 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0722…7e7fbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 1,046$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 800$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 27c | 498.82$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.57 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Miami Marlins | 22c | 483.59$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.23 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 5c | 408.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.98 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 396$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.25 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 18c | 368.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 18c | 340$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 238$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Tampa Bay Rays | 17c | 202.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 8c | 190.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 180.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 138.84$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 16c | 122$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 114.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 112$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 108.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Miami Marlins | 72c | 93.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 80.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Miami Marlins | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…342ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 39.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Miami Marlins | 58c | 35.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Miami Marlins | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 19.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.