MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1322b671f0cd7cdf43f9713c91f94c12b3633649cd67452083315b128a3b74c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 75c | 8,947$6,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,276.07 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 6,372$2,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,730.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 58c | 5,538$3,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,326.04 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 5,322$2,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,595.8 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 3,325$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…7300backed Under | 5c | 2,800$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +262.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 2,461$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.44 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0df…9cf9backed Under | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc9…ab64backed Under | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Over | 59c | 1,082$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.49 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 26c | 831.74$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 707.48$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 667.95$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.29 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 38c | 556.93$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.3 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2887…a552backed Under | 4c | 539.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 48c | 493.38$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.57 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 4c | 451.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Over | 24c | 412.9$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.69 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 18c | 408.91$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.31 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 72c | 304$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.96 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 42c | 263.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 27c | 222.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.79 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 27c | 218.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.5 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 71c | 197.82$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 70c | 185.69$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 51c | 152.28$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Over | 18c | 139.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.34 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 37c | 132.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.55 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bb0ebacked Over | 14c | 116.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.89 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 63c | 106.57$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 39c | 103.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 36c | 99.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 32c | 99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 47c | 76.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 24c | 55.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff7…bf32backed Over | 58c | 55.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95fa…bf35backed Over | 59c | 54.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Over | 46c | 52.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Over | 78c | 50.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 52c | 48.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2815…7f0cbacked Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 57c | 42.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 70c | 27.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 52c | 22.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…debbbacked Over | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 66c | 20.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 57c | 18.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 60c | 17.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…9103backed Under | 72c | 15.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.