MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb12bef22ec9432a131d901f50c6e63ddf389cb545508c2cd4b2401442b1fbb6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 12,000$6,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,879.86 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 11,695$5,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,597.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 1,653$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.19 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 1,528$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.76 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 1,317$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.67 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 1,163$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.53 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 1,094$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.04 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 20c | 1,023$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 22c | 1,000$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 995.63$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.1 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 881.47$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.51 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 761.59$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.03 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miami Marlins | 78c | 664.72$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.49 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 77c | 437$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 404$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.96 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 399$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.45 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Miami Marlins | 70c | 200$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.28 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 27c | 192.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 166.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Miami Marlins | 51c | 118.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 107$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 101.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 98.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 80.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 77.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 60.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 42.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 39.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 37.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 30.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Miami Marlins | 55c | 29.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 26.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 20.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…79a3backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 16.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.