Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c4de6924d7f2a037e586866a5d08614a795b16042327e89dffa6653e5d52037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 15c | 682$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.67 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 251.86$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 223.17$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 219$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 140.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…0c69backed Yes | 53c | 110.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 16c | 105.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 101.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 97.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 61c | 95.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 62c | 95.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 37c | 90.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 44c | 89.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 61c | 86.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 84.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 37c | 83.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 46c | 76.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 39c | 75.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 72.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 43c | 69.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 58c | 65.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 65c | 63.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 60.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c0…67e5backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 58.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 66c | 48.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 48.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 32c | 47.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 55c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 27c | 44.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 63c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 60c | 38.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…1fe9backed Yes | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 60c | 32.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 57c | 30.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 68c | 29.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe9…71cdbacked Yes | 42c | 28.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 68c | 26.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 26.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 24.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 49c | 23.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 53c | 19.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503f…9a8fbacked No | 68c | 18.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 64c | 18.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.