Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7430835e9b7328efebf446a3861434672d549dc72c63b3f992ec45ea7323e00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 4c | 743.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 559.96$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 63c | 345.13$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.25 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed Yes | 47c | 269.96$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.29 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 59c | 259.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.74 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 48c | 221.57$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 43c | 178$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 52c | 170$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 165.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 152.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 47c | 148.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 144.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 43c | 140.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 48c | 136.12$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 55c | 133.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 79c | 133.02$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 56c | 132.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 45c | 119.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 56c | 115.93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…dcf3backed Yes | 49c | 114.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 111.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 45c | 111.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 109.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 35c | 99.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 46c | 94.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 47c | 94.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 51c | 89.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 51c | 82.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 58c | 81.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 52c | 76.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 65.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 49c | 61.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 52c | 60.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked No | 41c | 56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed No | 48c | 55.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 54c | 55.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 51c | 54.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed No | 44c | 54.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…7401backed Yes | 48c | 53.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 56c | 52.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 49c | 51.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 49c | 51.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 54c | 50.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…1d8ebacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 35c | 49.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 58c | 49.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…8189backed No | 46c | 46.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 57c | 45.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 57c | 44.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 51c | 44.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 27c | 44.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 68c | 44.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 57c | 43.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 42.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 50c | 40.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…cbc4backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked No | 51c | 39.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 43c | 38.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 52c | 38.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 34c | 38.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 45c | 36.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 55c | 36.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed Yes | 50c | 35.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…d9adbacked Yes | 57c | 35.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 50c | 34.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…0c69backed Yes | 48c | 34.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 52c | 33.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 50c | 32.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked Yes | 55c | 32.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 32.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 52c | 31.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed Yes | 56c | 31.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 63c | 30.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 45c | 30.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 44c | 29.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 45c | 29.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 45c | 27.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed No | 54c | 27.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…45c1backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 57c | 27.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 26.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 48c | 25.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 44c | 25.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 46c | 25.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.