MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c7dc85c391cab95376feb39b4ac9706fdc0c6113748bfc1660c59b0573b462a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 56c | 10,026$5,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,584 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 44c | 9,925$4,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,558.11 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 56c | 5,841$3,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,266.23 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 51c | 2,077$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.31 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 52c | 1,750$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.05 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 45c | 1,510$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.59 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 46c | 1,507$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.81 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 48c | 914.18$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.15 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 892.41$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.75 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed Over | 45c | 816.58$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Under | 55c | 525.42$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.98 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 47c | 517.69$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.98 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 359.02$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.54 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a601backed Under | 55c | 265.36$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.95 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 248.04$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.98 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 45c | 225.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 53c | 182.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 45c | 158.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.29 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 45c | 146.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 141.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 49c | 118.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 49c | 110.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 49c | 96.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…76ccbacked Over | 46c | 94.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +10.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 54c | 85.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Under | 55c | 69.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Over | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 53c | 60.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 53c | 60.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Under | 53c | 60.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Under | 53c | 60.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 51c | 60.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000c…4375backed Over | 46c | 59.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 46c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc87…f0e3backed Under | 54c | 50.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 71c | 40.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Over | 46c | 37.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 53c | 34.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 76c | 34.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 45c | 30.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 56c | 22.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Under | 55c | 18.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 70c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.