MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf9a6b48df84eac1fea4ea3206bccedc4ad40f31e812e1362b27aae877b0e897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Athletics, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb911…7c31backed Athletics | 11c | 1,765$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.29 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 1,100$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Athletics | 41c | 1,061$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.03 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 12c | 861.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed Athletics | 16c | 359.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Athletics | 17c | 299.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…a58fbacked Athletics | 43c | 289.74$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.59 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 42c | 267.72$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Athletics | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 118.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Chicago White Sox | 79c | 113.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Athletics | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Athletics | 32c | 95.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago White Sox | 80c | 91.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb5…c162backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 81.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Athletics | 33c | 80.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox | 69c | 71.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 67.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Athletics | 43c | 67.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Athletics | 24c | 50.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Athletics | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Athletics | 43c | 48.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.