MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c85eef3d4b79b38fe6991c776e3195b467f5da90424994eb44a63827351cb13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof San Diego Padres, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked Houston Astros | 53c | 6,676$3,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,140.95 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 5,800$2,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,984 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Houston Astros | 48c | 3,723$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,943.19 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Houston Astros | 50c | 2,642$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.76 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 1,987$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.65 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 1,928$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 1,650$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked San Diego Padres | 53c | 1,464$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.71 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 1,231$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.86 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 1,118$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.5 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Houston Astros | 48c | 1,100$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked San Diego Padres | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 969$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.26 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked San Diego Padres | 51c | 921.88$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.16 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Houston Astros | 47c | 643.88$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.32 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Houston Astros | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 500$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked San Diego Padres | 51c | 470.94$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.18 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Houston Astros | 49c | 440.48$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.68 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Houston Astros | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Houston Astros | 49c | 392$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.85 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Houston Astros | 50c | 359$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.5 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…7693backed San Diego Padres | 7c | 285$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 85 | 7.1%6 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked San Diego Padres | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 170$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Houston Astros | 40c | 150.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed San Diego Padres | 9c | 147.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Houston Astros | 48c | 134.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Houston Astros | 78c | 132$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Houston Astros | 48c | 120.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Houston Astros | 48c | 108$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Houston Astros | 19c | 84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 60.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Houston Astros | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked San Diego Padres | 51c | 45.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Houston Astros | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32a…9862backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…4c67backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 26.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4816…ee65backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Houston Astros | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked Houston Astros | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…993dbacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…d1cabacked San Diego Padres | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.