NFL · resolved market
Spread: Lions (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ca4311dab7b1d8ea72f68c1862fd4c7701f71590d99f5de2731b12f4b055820
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vikingsof Lions, Vikings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Lions | 49c | 45,456$22,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,273.21 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Vikings | 50c | 23,098$11,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,530.62 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Vikings | 51c | 15,925$8,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,809.76 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Vikings | 51c | 9,804$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,803.92 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lions | 50c | 9,000$4,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,525.09 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Vikings | 51c | 7,061$3,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,460.06 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Lions | 51c | 4,902$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -8.5wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lions | 49c | 3,385$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658.88 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Vikings | 51c | 3,092$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.04 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Vikings | 50c | 2,634$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.08 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Vikings | 50c | 2,110$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.85 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Lions | 50c | 2,050$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Vikings | 51c | 1,490$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.2 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Vikings | 50c | 1,062$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.16 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Lions | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…b76cbacked Lions | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Vikings | 51c | 785$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.65 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Lions | 50c | 404.29$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.1 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Lions | 51c | 395.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Vikings | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7628…b822backed Lions | 50c | 185$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Vikings | 51c | 176.47$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Vikings | 51c | 160$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Vikings | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…d69ebacked Lions | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Lions | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Lions | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Vikings | 50c | 86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Vikings | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0530…d8febacked Vikings | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Vikings | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93db…e431backed Vikings | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Lions | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b7…1a2fbacked Lions | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Lions | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Vikings | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Vikings | 50c | 23.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Vikings | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lions (-9.5)this page
- Lions Team Total: O/U 31.5Under won
- Spread: Lions (-8.5)Vikings won
- Vikings vs. LionsVikings won
- Vikings vs. Lions: O/U 47.5Over won
- Vikings vs. Lions: O/U 48.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.