NFL · resolved market
Vikings vs. Lions: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5cd667f31c906c1af26a733b14e7f593c5139de71375f0eb46c7c74b95fa403
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7189…b454backed Under | 52c | 25,187$13,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,128.06 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 11,784$5,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,073.77 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 7,000$3,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,780 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 49c | 1,856$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.66 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 49c | 1,283$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.19 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 1,275$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.52 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 47c | 1,070$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.7 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.33 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 577.91$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.29 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Over | 72c | 556.55$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.55 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 53c | 425.53$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.53 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Over | 49c | 404.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.08 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 38c | 322.58$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.58 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…5213backed Over | 76c | 264.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Under | 52c | 191.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 188.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 47c | 153.28$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 47c | 72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Over | 50c | 67.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 50.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Over | 51c | 39.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49e…58afbacked Under | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vikings vs. Lions: O/U 48.5this page
- Lions Team Total: O/U 31.5Under won
- Spread: Lions (-8.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Lions (-9.5)Vikings won
- Vikings vs. LionsVikings won
- Vikings vs. Lions: O/U 47.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.