NFL · resolved market
Vikings vs. Steelers: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cc671a5ecb096c94976041c22236d595715df26c1b5ae390803b6fbf0931528
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Over | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 52c | 2,562$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 48c | 2,481$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.88 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Under | 51c | 2,015$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.76 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -12.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 51c | 1,938$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.59 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 50c | 1,842$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.81 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Over | 50c | 884.62$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.31 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Over | 49c | 527$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.77 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Over | 50c | 478$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 50c | 278$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Over | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…c262backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 162 | 75.3%122 W · 40 L | +17.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 51c | 134.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 52c | 101$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8874…0b31backed Over | 48c | 101$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Over | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…b93bbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…a55cbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb4…4961backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +63%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…0673backed Under | 51c | 28.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vikings vs. Steelers: O/U 41.5this page
- Spread: Vikings (-1.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Vikings (-2.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Vikings (-3.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Vikings (-4.5)Steelers won
- Vikings vs. SteelersSteelers won
- Vikings vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5Over won
- Vikings vs. Steelers: O/U 43.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.