NFL · resolved market
Spread: Vikings (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43b1528b4f495b4a19f63a0b33b8756e97652071f0ce4f05896c158d700b356a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Steelersof Vikings, Steelers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $363,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $367,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $363,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Steelers | 50c | 123,357$61,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,689.28 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…ee63backed Vikings | 51c | 75,000$38,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,250 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Vikings | 51c | 60,127$30,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,660.7 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Vikings | 50c | 47,000$23,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,500 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Steelers | 49c | 37,717$18,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,156.95 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Steelers | 49c | 35,000$17,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,850 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Steelers | 49c | 34,435$16,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,561.65 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Vikings | 50c | 10,018$5,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,001.76 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Vikings | 51c | 9,265$4,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,725.26 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Steelers | 51c | 8,171$4,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,003.64 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Steelers | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Vikings | 50c | 1,793$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.79 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Steelers | 49c | 1,494$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.78 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Vikings | 50c | 1,455$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.18 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Vikings | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…2081backed Vikings | 50c | 979.1$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.55 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Steelers | 50c | 870$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Vikings | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Vikings | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Vikings | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Vikings | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…94cfbacked Steelers | 50c | 498.48$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Steelers | 51c | 490$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Steelers | 50c | 489.8$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.9 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Vikings | 50c | 451.8$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.19 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Steelers | 49c | 417.21$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.71 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…995fbacked Vikings | 50c | 400$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 53cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Vikings | 51c | 360$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Vikings | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Steelers | 50c | 280$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.42 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x231a…2597backed Vikings | 51c | 252.69$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Vikings | 51c | 245.89$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.34 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Steelers | 49c | 204.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed Vikings | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Steelers | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Vikings | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Vikings | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa740…ee18backed Steelers | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…9dc3backed Vikings | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x887c…e405backed Vikings | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Vikings | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Vikings | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Vikings | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Steelers | 48c | 88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Vikings | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Steelers | 51c | 58.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…4fdcbacked Vikings | 51c | 52.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Steelers | 50c | 50.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Vikings | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Vikings | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Vikings | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae25…bc16backed Vikings | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Vikings | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…708cbacked Vikings | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…e132backed Vikings | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Steelers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed Vikings | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vikings (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Vikings (-1.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Vikings (-3.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Vikings (-4.5)Steelers won
- Vikings vs. SteelersSteelers won
- Vikings vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5Over won
- Vikings vs. Steelers: O/U 41.5Over won
- Vikings vs. Steelers: O/U 43.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.