Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $2.80 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d0a410b03ed914d030308937fd566b22f3e146df499a3c22291efb4c453a185
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 11c | 49,242$5,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,184.76 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ca…a461backed Yes | 11c | 8,633$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.45 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 5c | 6,989$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.64 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 5,901$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.98 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,847$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.67 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe631…cb8dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,840$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b8…63acbacked Yes | 1c | 3,571$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,951$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 74c | 2,442$1,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.1 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 32c | 1,890$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.94 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 6c | 1,783$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…2a59backed Yes | 2c | 1,091$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x835e…3f52backed Yes | 31c | 865.78$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 35c | 855.54$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.84 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…349abacked Yes | 1c | 814.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 2c | 787.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x963d…ec60backed Yes | 3c | 767.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…8a2dbacked No | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…0724backed Yes | 5c | 686.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 2c | 671.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 5c | 661.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 2c | 628.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Yes | 7c | 561.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…52c0backed Yes | 24c | 555.88$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.12 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked No | 66c | 499.65$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.88 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 7c | 487.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 14c | 468.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6431…9056backed Yes | 4c | 465.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a31…08f2backed Yes | 28c | 404.07$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Yes | 13c | 396.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ba…3d9cbacked Yes | 6c | 307.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…564cbacked Yes | 38c | 236.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Yes | 9c | 221.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…09c2backed Yes | 24c | 218$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…8d07backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d3…5919backed No | 74c | 170.53$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4aa…8d91backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 29c | 133.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…27ccbacked Yes | 39c | 104.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked No | 60c | 100.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…d506backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…6717backed Yes | 50c | 99.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…78e9backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x748d…408cbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 42c | 55.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…d6cebacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +302.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…174ebacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…b95dbacked Yes | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in November?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.20 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.40 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $6.00 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.