Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $2.60 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc6be5e1af58d2b95b496823b1c6bddf0d9bcc02926402d87a3d6b9cf708856f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $369,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $342,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $369,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 10c | 110,782$11,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,458.79 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 15c | 20,638$3,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,018.98 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 10,525$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.03 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 24c | 7,697$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.62 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed No | 63c | 5,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 3,691$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa7…01bdbacked No | 51c | 3,096$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ca…a461backed Yes | 14c | 2,771$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.45 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed Yes | 6c | 2,172$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4a…621bbacked No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe631…cb8dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,959$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 23c | 1,931$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.96 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 24c | 1,812$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.93 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,810$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…93a7backed Yes | 10c | 1,683$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…2a59backed Yes | 6c | 1,675$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 5c | 1,572$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,435$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.18 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 61c | 1,367$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.62 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 6c | 1,351$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0281…34e7backed Yes | 8c | 1,342$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…6cc0backed Yes | 31c | 1,300$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…949fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,155$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,100$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes | 58c | 1,100$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2c…55cfbacked Yes | 8c | 942.25$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 11c | 770.23$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.33 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 58c | 700$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.3 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Yes | 6c | 666.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…52c0backed Yes | 14c | 645$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 42c | 641.97$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.69 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00c…0fe2backed Yes | 7c | 578.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 557.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 22c | 538.82$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.54 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…5804backed Yes | 2c | 521.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f7…f6f2backed No | 32c | 507.52$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 10c | 458.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.25 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 26c | 451.1$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…a9d9backed Yes | 52c | 428.62$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a4…5e4fbacked Yes | 57c | 392.92$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ba…3d9cbacked Yes | 10c | 366.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 44c | 350$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Yes | 15c | 340.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 67c | 275$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47c4…c0f9backed Yes | 8c | 256.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8b…6436backed Yes | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…fe13backed Yes | 29c | 229.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed No | 7c | 220.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.29 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf493…f4f6backed Yes | 64c | 210$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…aad0backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…564cbacked Yes | 68c | 145.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a61…588bbacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -8.0wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffd…0a51backed Yes | 9c | 126.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…d6cebacked No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +302.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…b056backed No | 66c | 115.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 63c | 111.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 49c | 110.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed No | 12c | 108$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.88 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 37c | 105$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8a…d118backed Yes | 10c | 101.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 18c | 77.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 34c | 70.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…2103backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…9037backed Yes | 43c | 56.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…6acfbacked No | 60c | 56.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…6717backed Yes | 73c | 54.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…501dbacked Yes | 43c | 51.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af5…2041backed Yes | 20c | 50.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0e…f6f5backed No | 60c | 48.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e7…64ddbacked No | 73c | 27.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc2…cce7backed No | 60c | 23.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 71c | 20.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8047…8c58backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in November?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.20 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.40 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $6.00 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.