Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $3.00 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd629dde12ba803ec6e1ea2884337d97b4436c06eff6ef2ef4c8c0582b1d7493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 9c | 25,697$2,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400.69 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ca…a461backed Yes | 8c | 8,447$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.05 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 15c | 7,381$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.97 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 1c | 5,386$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,663$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 17c | 3,580$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.3 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,406$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 5c | 2,484$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.03 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…9036backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -83%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd58…5980backed Yes | 42c | 1,424$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd5…26fdbacked Yes | 18c | 1,148$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 10c | 1,100$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645d…959ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,042$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…f7edbacked Yes | 18c | 1,010$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe631…cb8dbacked Yes | 3c | 924.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 12c | 900.81$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d5…7a9fbacked Yes | 13c | 599.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 18c | 500$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…52c0backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Yes | 15c | 350$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Yes | 4c | 331.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84da…84f6backed Yes | 8c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4aa…8d91backed Yes | 11c | 180.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 15c | 156$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 27c | 117.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…6038backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a31…08f2backed Yes | 13c | 91.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6de…468ebacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 26c | 79.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…1bb6backed No | 64c | 68.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…dbf7backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…ca3cbacked Yes | 38c | 52.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4b…b054backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…9518backed Yes | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…f44abacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in November?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.20 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.40 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $6.00 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.