Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.80 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a48843d6b7c2d44b08f45004433abae4c0929b5e82bcfafe2e4d578af45fa02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $373,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $374,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $373,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 10c | 65,595$6,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,729.89 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 22c | 20,000$4,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,370 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…278fbacked Yes | 3c | 13,127$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 5c | 7,108$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.88 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,066$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b8…63acbacked Yes | 17c | 5,582$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.95 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 25c | 5,152$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.92 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ca…a461backed Yes | 10c | 3,839$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.45 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 27c | 3,300$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.5 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed No | 80c | 3,184$2,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.17 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 10c | 2,500$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed No | 71c | 2,281$1,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.98 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa8…b3e2backed No | 70c | 2,129$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…8cdcbacked Yes | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…ddfcbacked Yes | 14c | 1,461$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 3c | 1,300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,168$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.14 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,069$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…b056backed Yes | 10c | 1,015$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…02acbacked Yes | 8c | 1,014$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…af8bbacked No | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 140 | 75.7%106 W · 34 L | +17.6wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked No | 70c | 998.91$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb43…9b32backed Yes | 8c | 917.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…885ebacked Yes | 1c | 899$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1e…70ebbacked Yes | 8c | 868.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a12…8961backed No | 57c | 861.4$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed No | 54c | 786.62$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.12 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 11c | 778.25$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91c…3830backed Yes | 36c | 672.02$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 15c | 660.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…a9d9backed Yes | 12c | 653.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 8c | 652.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401c…d4bdbacked Yes | 20c | 502.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f7…55dcbacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f6…525bbacked Yes | 5c | 443.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 22c | 438$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 36c | 416.66$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.66 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x25a2…af53backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…0590backed Yes | 12c | 374.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 18c | 311.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 309$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…9074backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31f…e89dbacked Yes | 6c | 213.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936e…9b41backed Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…e7e6backed Yes | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…52dcbacked Yes | 18c | 182.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Yes | 7c | 170.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 68c | 160$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…df81backed No | 70c | 143.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Yes | 28c | 140.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00c…0fe2backed Yes | 23c | 134.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…b616backed No | 77c | 120.65$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…a965backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…7518backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b7…169bbacked Yes | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 43c | 90.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Yes | 23c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bed…a28cbacked No | 55c | 38.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba3…0ed1backed Yes | 28c | 35.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb30b…61b5backed Yes | 62c | 31.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc063…99cfbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba2…eb60backed Yes | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eab…0195backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1904…23d3backed No | 76c | 27.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 in November?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.20 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.40 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $6.00 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.