Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf5b0d7323ffa5ddc1f16838b44ed82ba96b800389d9f743131f8ceb4657eedc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 51c | 16,052$8,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,797.71 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…9211backed Yes | 56c | 14,502$8,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,383.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed No | 47c | 11,445$5,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,348.58 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb32…b646backed Yes | 49c | 8,650$4,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,390.95 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 55c | 6,537$3,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,623.01 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 48c | 6,039$2,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,167.45 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa7…01bdbacked No | 40c | 3,099$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.65 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,699$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.75 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 68c | 1,061$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.12 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 48c | 1,017$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.12 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 65c | 770.52$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…8a2dbacked No | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 30c | 560$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.8 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d85…c543backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x140a…ef1bbacked Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.39per pick | 52cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed No | 45c | 332.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.15 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 68c | 300$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…1542backed No | 53c | 280.19$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 28c | 279.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.4 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 26c | 272.59$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.49 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…2f78backed Yes | 61c | 251.52$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…a9d9backed Yes | 30c | 232$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Yes | 60c | 210$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed No | 71c | 200$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f7…55dcbacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 54c | 196.74$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25a2…af53backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 53c | 161$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 38c | 133.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 28c | 119.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…daa3backed No | 29c | 104.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 60c | 103.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 51c | 94.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 42c | 80.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 36.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…2695backed Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +63%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…6717backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…c1a5backed No | 46c | 27.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…0447backed No | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked No | 65c | 18.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 56c | 18.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in November?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.20 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.40 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $6.00 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.