Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.60 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f28d5847b203b4c4c90d3f10df516a31d59e05b8ec308d7635543935772de55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $238,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $238,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 8c | 37,963$3,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,129.89 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 20c | 19,000$3,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,714.36 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 6c | 7,386$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.79 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed No | 74c | 6,940$5,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,809.15 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 8c | 6,334$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.61 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838b…a75cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,770$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.37 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 3,610$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.07 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 8c | 2,455$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.29 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd21…efdbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,441$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.39 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe631…cb8dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,387$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.4 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00c…0fe2backed Yes | 6c | 1,774$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.24 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 7c | 1,700$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,687$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…ddfcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,142$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…8cdcbacked Yes | 22c | 1,136$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b8…63acbacked Yes | 22c | 1,126$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…349abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 22c | 930.66$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.63 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 7c | 926.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…4fbcbacked Yes | 8c | 775.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 7c | 558.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Yes | 8c | 503.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…5fdfbacked Yes | 5c | 480.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +416.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91c…3830backed Yes | 22c | 458.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ba…3d9cbacked Yes | 10c | 344.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Yes | 13c | 310.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a4…0e24backed Yes | 13c | 300.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…f475backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 5c | 292.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00b…7f8dbacked Yes | 10c | 256.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 18c | 210$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Yes | 11c | 177.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c4…c0f9backed Yes | 13c | 148.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…0724backed Yes | 13c | 147.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 139.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 14c | 137.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed No | 70c | 135.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc294…adadbacked Yes | 23c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…0479backed No | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f0bcbacked No | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf86…b082backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…a4f2backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…6408backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 in November?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.20 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.40 in November?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.80 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.20 in November?No won
- Will XRP reach $6.00 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.