CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d5b789f7c919aaf2492e2ba4a0c7e48127d9e92342df750e6aabed3554d0fcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ex-RUBYof illwill, ex-RUBY
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked illwill | 15c | 2,796$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.16 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ex-RUBY | 62c | 1,274$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.8 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed illwill | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 574 | 0%0 W · 574 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed illwill | 37c | 659.57$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.71 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked illwill | 32c | 554.94$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.04 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc7…43e5backed illwill | 43c | 540.95$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.45 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed illwill | 32c | 359.77$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.41 | 622 | 48.2%300 W · 322 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…bfcbbacked illwill | 59c | 340.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked ex-RUBY | 67c | 335.96$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.77 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4063…ea8dbacked illwill | 50c | 334.74$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.03 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6818…8f14backed illwill | 39c | 273.29$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.65 | 180 | 37.8%68 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked ex-RUBY | 52c | 232.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.85 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…f616backed ex-RUBY | 42c | 207.47$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.48 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x831c…ce7dbacked ex-RUBY | 56c | 203.91$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…b9acbacked ex-RUBY | 65c | 202.39$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 100 | 63%63 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed ex-RUBY | 48c | 189$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed ex-RUBY | 53c | 187.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 474 | 47.5%225 W · 249 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked illwill | 53c | 184.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed ex-RUBY | 58c | 166.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…618ebacked ex-RUBY | 47c | 145.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked ex-RUBY | 62c | 142.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4704…515ebacked ex-RUBY | 52c | 127.09$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 371 | 40.7%151 W · 220 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…0c6ebacked illwill | 39c | 126.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa369…3ad6backed ex-RUBY | 57c | 120.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 331 | 46.5%154 W · 177 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…0539backed illwill | 47c | 104.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed ex-RUBY | 48c | 99.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 193 | 29%56 W · 137 L | -23.4wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed illwill | 51c | 97.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed illwill | 33c | 88.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…22c3backed ex-RUBY | 58c | 86.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed illwill | 46c | 84.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked illwill | 58c | 84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed ex-RUBY | 55c | 84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 618 | 37.9%234 W · 384 L | -22.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed illwill | 45c | 82.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked illwill | 42c | 81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked illwill | 39c | 79.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed illwill | 35c | 77.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 309 | 39.2%121 W · 188 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked illwill | 35c | 77.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 306 | 38.9%119 W · 187 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked illwill | 46c | 73.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407f…63ddbacked illwill | 46c | 73.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed ex-RUBY | 47c | 71.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked illwill | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 545 | 43.5%237 W · 308 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked ex-RUBY | 58c | 70.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…ea33backed ex-RUBY | 52c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked illwill | 45c | 63.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked ex-RUBY | 46c | 62.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…377ebacked ex-RUBY | 67c | 62.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 361 | 74.8%270 W · 91 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked ex-RUBY | 62c | 52.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 397 | 72.5%288 W · 109 L | +38.5wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked ex-RUBY | 70c | 52.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed illwill | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…d8b8backed ex-RUBY | 52c | 50.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 87 | 58.6%51 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked illwill | 56c | 50.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 412 | 50.2%207 W · 205 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed ex-RUBY | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed illwill | 41c | 47.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…9f83backed illwill | 60c | 31.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked illwill | 68c | 30.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 98 | 64.3%63 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ex-RUBY | 57c | 30.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…b1d4backed illwill | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…a744backed ex-RUBY | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked ex-RUBY | 61c | 28.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4db1…528cbacked ex-RUBY | 65c | 25.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…b78ebacked ex-RUBY | 64c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked ex-RUBY | 64c | 22.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed illwill | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…355fbacked ex-RUBY | 63c | 19.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked illwill | 70c | 16.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 274 | 52.2%143 W · 131 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked illwill | 79c | 14.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stageex-RUBY won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winnerillwill won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.