TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
illwillof illwill, ex-RUBY
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,233
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,924

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,233 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51db…f9b3backed illwill72c2,169$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.486,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed ex-RUBY1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked illwill70c892.69$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.472,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0c…1249backed ex-RUBY23c818.21$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.0718338.8%71 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14f3…1398backed ex-RUBY28c714.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed illwill71c614.63$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.775836.2%21 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked ex-RUBY13c533.27$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.243,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked illwill50c486.69$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.351,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-RUBY22c486.02$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.425,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed ex-RUBY8c457.83$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.42,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed ex-RUBY40c436$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.482,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked ex-RUBY28c434.6$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.653,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22c7…3e23backed ex-RUBY37c428.55$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16014037.1%52 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed illwill72c420.73$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.384,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked ex-RUBY30c420.41$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.222,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed illwill63c385.33$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.6133448.2%161 W · 173 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f18…c075backed ex-RUBY52c384.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004045%18 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked illwill48c379.71$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.4589248%428 W · 464 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed ex-RUBY41c338.11$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7528549.5%141 W · 144 L+1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb1…eac3backed ex-RUBY18c333.03$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.686544.6%29 W · 36 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d54…4d13backed ex-RUBY49c317.95$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.796456.3%36 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed ex-RUBY23c287.16$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7419329%56 W · 137 L-23.4wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-40.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked ex-RUBY16c284.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.711,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35f0…971ebacked illwill68c254.53$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.831647.8%151 W · 165 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed illwill48c250$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13052150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc7…43e5backed ex-RUBY10c244.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.097716.9%13 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x597d…b97dbacked ex-RUBY7c242.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188239%32 W · 50 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed ex-RUBY29c233$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.662,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c6b…4d61backed ex-RUBY6c220.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.112128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+161%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed ex-RUBY22c215.34$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.084165.9%27 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0786…df1dbacked illwill80c197.02$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.44571.1%32 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked illwill51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0819147.1%90 W · 101 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed illwill69c180.88$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8116155.9%90 W · 71 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed illwill59c179.34$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7491743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked illwill63c171.26$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.863,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed ex-RUBY21c169$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1237440.4%151 W · 223 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed ex-RUBY11c157.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ex-RUBY30c153.24$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.345,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93ed…a4cbbacked illwill68c146.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0126048.8%127 W · 133 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9044…dcedbacked illwill51c146$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.626755.2%37 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2284…e326backed ex-RUBY23c130.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017456.9%99 W · 75 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked ex-RUBY18c125.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5262738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked illwill51c113.73$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.739247.8%44 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee1…f616backed ex-RUBY20c112.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9413332.3%43 W · 90 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked illwill63c108.9$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.25,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e4a…a45fbacked ex-RUBY14c106.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick27cpaid-76%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked illwill70c100.46$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.381,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked illwill51c100.41$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.21,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bce…2379backed ex-RUBY37c100.37$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.72948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked illwill68c94.55$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.884,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae94…6b17backed illwill58c90$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.810551.4%54 W · 51 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed ex-RUBY23c86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.091,30426.5%345 W · 959 L-89.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x01af…25cfbacked ex-RUBY24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204055%22 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0710…9335backed ex-RUBY33c75.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513127.5%36 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed ex-RUBY25c71.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8296543.5%420 W · 545 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed ex-RUBY38c65.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2522555.6%125 W · 100 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed ex-RUBY33c60.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2077146%355 W · 416 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa7…afb4backed ex-RUBY20c59.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7519454.1%105 W · 89 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked ex-RUBY38c59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1339772.5%288 W · 109 L+38.5wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f11…15b5backed ex-RUBY50c56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284143.9%18 W · 23 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ca2…1798backed illwill72c55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.415277.6%118 W · 34 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5df…be7cbacked ex-RUBY51c53.87$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.436543.1%28 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked ex-RUBY22c52.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8637149.6%184 W · 187 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56df…22c3backed ex-RUBY49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.59045.6%41 W · 49 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed illwill62c45.08$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0564046.3%296 W · 344 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed illwill78c45.02$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.82,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7643…fb95backed illwill50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208452.4%44 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed illwill72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.241050.7%208 W · 202 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18f0…3d5ebacked ex-RUBY50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6818…8f14backed illwill51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2218037.8%68 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked ex-RUBY31c37.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7767547.3%319 W · 356 L-9.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a0…2212backed illwill55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3634547.5%164 W · 181 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89d6…f4dcbacked illwill51c32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.684075%30 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfcdd…0ecdbacked ex-RUBY50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1532956.8%187 W · 142 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed illwill68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.480942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25ef…b2ddbacked illwill60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84571.1%32 W · 13 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xabb5…ea33backed illwill61c19.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.43073.3%22 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…8d97backed illwill67c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6132662%202 W · 124 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a1…32f2backed illwill69c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.341442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked illwill77c15.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5327452.2%143 W · 131 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.