TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,587

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,051 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes41c355.03$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.465,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c292.74$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.2712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e9…1c08backed Yes26c290.31$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.27742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No74c229.73$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.732,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes21c224.54$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.058013.8%11 W · 69 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c217.19$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No76c206.84$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.412,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309919.2%19 W · 80 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+84.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3773…f0ddbacked No77c199.33$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.853756.8%21 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes28c194.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3374023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes22c185.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1939535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes27c182.75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6645619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes25c182.41$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.67534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…7926backed Yes23c150$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.542315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c148.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes25c148.14$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.373,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No76c130.32$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7537533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No77c126.37$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6215155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes30c118.6$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0870133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes21c107.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.389,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x798d…b91fbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes18c99.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9992028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e0…19ccbacked No78c99.88$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.74562.2%28 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes22c98.66$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4351321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Yes36c98.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4618550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes25c93.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.231,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No78c90.64$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6452571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No73c88.71$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8772952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes59c84.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7118948.1%91 W · 98 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes34c81.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0416836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1294…cd72backed No80c79.43$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.897266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No70c77.97$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1634057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a91…983fbacked Yes19c77.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5113942.4%59 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No72c77.16$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.841,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c75.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.131,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No76c71.32$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1298571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb95e…1a68backed No80c69.58$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.925052%26 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe21…f884backed Yes23c69.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.923026.7%8 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes36c67.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5879040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes25c67.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0460739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes31c66.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No79c65.53$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.822675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No78c64.6$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9416575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No79c64.53$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8726566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked No77c64.23$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5322934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95d4…839abacked Yes25c63.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0928119.9%56 W · 225 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x349d…155cbacked Yes39c60.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.574334.9%15 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes22c58.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8445148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No79c56.33$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6118272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No64c54.67$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6883360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No77c51.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9697570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No80c51.93$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5714666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes23c51.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.753253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7944…8861backed Yes41c50.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.891258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.527540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4204…4637backed Yes22c49.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.99742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No44c49.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.661,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No77c49.07$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.114671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes24c48.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4325239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No55c48.15$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.598160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes23c47.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8326738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes32c46.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.041,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes22c46.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.234022.5%9 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19fa…e09dbacked Yes53c41.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.66540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25a…31c4backed Yes47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.64757.4%27 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54df…51fabacked Yes48c39.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.96850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…dd39backed Yes51c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.182330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes48c35.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.831,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ef…813ebacked No78c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2588…48babacked Yes45c34.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.723855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x30ad…22d6backed Yes45c34.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.716144.3%27 W · 34 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes32c33.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6489544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49da…0f6abacked Yes53c32.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.15520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick60cpaid-58.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes46c31.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.581,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e84…e08dbacked No50c31.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.621580%12 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No75c30.96$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.861,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes55c30.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7213554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked No76c27.73$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7444147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1cd…aecdbacked No71c27.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.868561.2%52 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No76c25.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0840777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed No76c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No48c24.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.584,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c8…e547backed No78c23.14$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.09560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No78c22.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8951762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83d1…685abacked No80c21.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.282161.9%13 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick72cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No75c21.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3355855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes62c21.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2127463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbce…c781backed No75c19.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.871735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No76c19.26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6217376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No75c16.9$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.222,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No76c16.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.021,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd72d…9e9ebacked No78c15.04$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.33987.2%34 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick73cpaid+18.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1802…9b20backed No78c14.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.251883.3%15 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.