Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d6f5660ff06d8f2175d0e24cf1538fabb52b2bbfeea63e4363e8f64355615df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 355.03$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 292.74$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…1c08backed Yes | 26c | 290.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 229.73$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 21c | 224.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 217.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 206.84$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 77c | 199.33$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 28c | 194.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 22c | 185.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 27c | 182.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 25c | 182.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 148.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 148.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 76c | 130.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 77c | 126.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 118.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 107.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798d…b91fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 18c | 99.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked No | 78c | 99.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 22c | 98.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 36c | 98.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 25c | 93.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 90.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 73c | 88.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 59c | 84.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 34c | 81.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 80c | 79.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 70c | 77.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 19c | 77.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 72c | 77.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 75.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 71.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed No | 80c | 69.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 23c | 69.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 36c | 67.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 25c | 67.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 66.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 79c | 65.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 78c | 64.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 79c | 64.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 77c | 64.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 25c | 63.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 39c | 60.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 22c | 58.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 56.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 54.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 51.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 80c | 51.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes | 23c | 51.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…8861backed Yes | 41c | 50.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…4637backed Yes | 22c | 49.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 44c | 49.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 77c | 49.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 24c | 48.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 48.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 23c | 47.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 32c | 46.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 22c | 46.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19fa…e09dbacked Yes | 53c | 41.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…51fabacked Yes | 48c | 39.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…dd39backed Yes | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 48c | 35.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ef…813ebacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 45c | 34.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 45c | 34.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 32c | 33.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49da…0f6abacked Yes | 53c | 32.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 46c | 31.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…e08dbacked No | 50c | 31.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 30.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 55c | 30.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 76c | 27.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 71c | 27.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 25.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 24.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…e547backed No | 78c | 23.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 22.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d1…685abacked No | 80c | 21.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 75c | 21.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 62c | 21.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…c781backed No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 16.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 16.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 78c | 15.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…9b20backed No | 78c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C or higher on April 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.