TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C or higher on April 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,937
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,693

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,937 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x05ac…6d71backed No39c889.17$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.111560%9 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes65c697.13$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.744,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2cf…65fdbacked Yes78c628.13$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.221442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-10.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4a7…79c9backed No33c481.53$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes67c441.83$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.6917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes51c339.07$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.675,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes68c294.11$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.122,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3773…f0ddbacked Yes66c285.54$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.753756.8%21 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabae…508ebacked Yes72c268.37$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.88771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No33c259.12$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.962,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ce1dbacked No38c253.89$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.621442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes68c246.02$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3939535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked Yes69c233.8$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.42,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No33c212.26$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.031,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No39c202.52$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes48c200.03$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.9389544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No34c183.29$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.668,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba96…7080backed No30c181.79$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2612560.8%76 W · 49 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes53c168.44$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3839966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked No28c165.71$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.410617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes65c152.2$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.278643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No27c150.8$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1949038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8680…a628backed No66c146.18$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.612142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes39c125.12$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.921,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e84…659dbacked No51c124.59$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.733473.5%25 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes54c116.55$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0860739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed Yes77c110.4$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9227376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1294…cd72backed No29c105.8$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.687266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked Yes72c105.15$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7142469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed Yes71c101.41$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1322675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54df…51fabacked No37c101.3$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.48850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed No32c100.96$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.21,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ede…9e87backed Yes35c96.78$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.932157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc45…2957backed No26c96.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-33.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked Yes71c96.01$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7352571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes69c93.22$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ab…6938backed No28c92.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.013426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2af7…570dbacked No50c91.5$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.012462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69d2…2f75backed No33c90.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303243.8%14 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a91…983fbacked Yes67c88$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0413942.4%59 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes78c84.05$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1611362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed Yes67c83.95$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3155855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x974c…7ba3backed No53c80.95$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.672725.9%7 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2588…48babacked No66c78.19$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.533855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7054…e544backed Yes68c72.71$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.27650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc0b…961fbacked No34c72.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.629436.2%34 W · 60 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed Yes71c71.31$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765d…8189backed No32c70.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.212825%7 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-39%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xe57d…043abacked No35c65.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.048746%40 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa15f…ad19backed No29c64.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.581662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4302…8d4fbacked No27c63.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.798253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed Yes71c63.26$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6314671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402a…bf33backed No32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.475046%23 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73d0…6972backed No36c57.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9222959.8%137 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked Yes71c57.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6116575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked Yes67c56.83$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.841,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked Yes72c56.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1118272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed Yes64c55.97$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1571159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8712…962fbacked Yes72c54$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.123100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+78.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed No35c53.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.734846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No28c52.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.839,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes60c51.55$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.381,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x322a…096fbacked No38c50.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.366622.7%15 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c28…2343backed Yes65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-47.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked No26c49.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9934748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65b6…129dbacked No30c49.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.764254.8%23 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes47c49.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.971,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb95e…1a68backed No36c47.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.245052%26 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No34c46.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0557232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xee83…ea10backed Yes58c46.61$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.792458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No54c45.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8299962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88b7…f18dbacked No59c44.91$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.27742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes72c44.49$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3426566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf876…8975backed No38c43.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.675332.1%17 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda7b…3c9fbacked Yes69c42.44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1612567.2%84 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked No35c40.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2916836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes72c40.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No34c40.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.93,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfff9…a21abacked No35c40.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.028138.3%31 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1431262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe4c…ebeabacked No32c39.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.542040%8 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes65c38.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3735362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x33f2…4fc0backed No28c37.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.336633.3%22 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes68c36.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7393837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes73c36.54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9940242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes64c35.72$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.861,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7234…e457backed No32c34.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.192630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-45.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbce…c781backed Yes70c34.51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.261735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked Yes72c32.4$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0740777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes72c32.39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0772952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5597…c6fbbacked Yes60c31.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.593066.7%20 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes68c30.73$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8332830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2ca…4419backed Yes66c30.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes45c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.542544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5784…f20bbacked No35c29.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.382512%3 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-75.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed Yes73c29.73$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1317066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes70c28.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6156721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2a4…5044backed No36c28.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes72c27.01$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.577744.2%34 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.