Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C or higher on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cef7e2e78e3af6d08cb37297b098fa91e7039a59cfe2bbd594afa410ef76134
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed No | 39c | 889.17$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.11 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 65c | 697.13$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.74 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…65fdbacked Yes | 78c | 628.13$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a7…79c9backed No | 33c | 481.53$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 67c | 441.83$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 339.07$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 68c | 294.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked Yes | 66c | 285.54$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabae…508ebacked Yes | 72c | 268.37$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 33c | 259.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ce1dbacked No | 38c | 253.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 68c | 246.02$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 69c | 233.8$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 33c | 212.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 202.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 48c | 200.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.93 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 34c | 183.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 30c | 181.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 53c | 168.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 28c | 165.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 65c | 152.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 27c | 150.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…a628backed No | 66c | 146.18$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 39c | 125.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 51c | 124.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 54c | 116.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed Yes | 77c | 110.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 29c | 105.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 72c | 105.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed Yes | 71c | 101.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…51fabacked No | 37c | 101.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed No | 32c | 100.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…9e87backed Yes | 35c | 96.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed No | 26c | 96.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked Yes | 71c | 96.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 69c | 93.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…6938backed No | 28c | 92.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…570dbacked No | 50c | 91.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed No | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 67c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 78c | 84.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 67c | 83.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…7ba3backed No | 53c | 80.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked No | 66c | 78.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…e544backed Yes | 68c | 72.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 34c | 72.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 71c | 71.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…8189backed No | 32c | 70.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 35c | 65.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed No | 29c | 64.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 27c | 63.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed Yes | 71c | 63.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 36c | 57.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked Yes | 71c | 57.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 67c | 56.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked Yes | 72c | 56.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 64c | 55.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8712…962fbacked Yes | 72c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed No | 35c | 53.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 52.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 60c | 51.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 38c | 50.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…2343backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 26c | 49.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 30c | 49.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 47c | 49.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed No | 36c | 47.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 34c | 46.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 58c | 46.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 54c | 45.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b7…f18dbacked No | 59c | 44.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 72c | 44.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 38c | 43.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked Yes | 69c | 42.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked No | 35c | 40.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 72c | 40.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 34c | 40.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 35c | 40.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4c…ebeabacked No | 32c | 39.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 65c | 38.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed No | 28c | 37.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 68c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 73c | 36.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 64c | 35.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…e457backed No | 32c | 34.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…c781backed Yes | 70c | 34.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked Yes | 72c | 32.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 72c | 32.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked Yes | 60c | 31.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 68c | 30.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed Yes | 66c | 30.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…f20bbacked No | 35c | 29.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed Yes | 73c | 29.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 70c | 28.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…5044backed No | 36c | 28.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 72c | 27.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C or higher on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.