TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$202,876

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,876 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under62c28,286$17,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,587.993,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over38c19,995$7,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,496.8110041%41 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d0…9b55backed Over38c8,892$3,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,547.383953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1f09…9312backed Over41c7,495$3,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,392.98650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over41c5,327$2,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,142.833953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Over32c5,246$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,577.114839.6%19 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under60c5,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00016647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20c1…df04backed Over58c3,961$2,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.233363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Under59c3,576$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.832853.6%15 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Under59c2,550$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.55349.1%26 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under60c2,000$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.9969851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Over40c1,777$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.22015%3 W · 17 L-6.7wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-67.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Over32c1,500$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0202520%5 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xddd5…ec9ebacked Under46c1,480$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.75825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-58.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over41c1,456$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.047345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c14…68f3backed Under3c1,347$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42230%0 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over41c1,341$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.469856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.418955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under55c990.26$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.071,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under59c948.05$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.3534144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under59c940$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.615453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Over56c939.29$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.293360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over70c700$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.1416060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under57c664.05$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.172,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over41c609.76$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.763339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89d8…1cccbacked Under60c600$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf3d…fd74backed Over34c599.41$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.612035%7 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under60c548$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.111,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Under45c524.45$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2362755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d5c…1768backed Under61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3053129%9 W · 22 L-7.2wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-47%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over41c487.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.85944.1%26 W · 33 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under60c463.79$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.251,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over56c410.71$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.7126433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under59c399.99$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.9935856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under64c386.53$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.1530647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under26c382.84$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4733938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over33c366.67$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.6712635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Under60c333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.83050%15 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over41c332.68$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.288124.7%20 W · 61 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Over40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd810…2eb8backed Under59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1772850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Under71c281.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001450%7 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Under59c256.41$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.411540.9%47 W · 68 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over42c252.74$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.5922157%126 W · 95 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.910554.3%57 W · 48 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under59c219$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2110855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Under59c210$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.94650%23 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44dc…2ddbbacked Under60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b6…0bd5backed Under59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1181030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed Under59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1188154.3%44 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under66c188.03$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.619254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea60…e977backed Under60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over33c151.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5220753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Under60c150$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905354.7%29 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5af1…f988backed Under59c150$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.56656.1%37 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65b5…a9f7backed Under59c149.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.56755.2%37 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under67c135.82$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913565.7%23 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Under68c122.44$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.517050%35 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Over41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.958050%40 W · 40 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under59c117.13$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1110360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Under60c116.67$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f7c…8ae5backed Under66c114.55$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over35c112.81$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3312460.5%75 W · 49 L+19.9wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+46.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717950.6%40 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6111060%66 W · 44 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0189…cab8backed Over42c97.62$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.623167.7%21 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked Over42c97$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.261275%9 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+32.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaaad…c739backed Over40c87.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.52259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Under66c86.94$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.385556.4%31 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a98…3f93backed Over41c85.37$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.371163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+37.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under56c83.69$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8414734.7%51 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Over42c83.33$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3311943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Under59c81.78$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.583948.7%19 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3248…8ba9backed Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc884…a4e6backed Over41c80$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.23246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over45c75$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2534655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8010…04e4backed Over55c74.48$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.585375.5%40 W · 13 L+10.0wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+41.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x53fa…83f9backed Under40c70$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cbe…4d88backed Over40c70$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+80.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Over40c63.81$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2962452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over41c60.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9812069.2%83 W · 37 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under60c59.63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7813957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c80…6f38backed Over42c59.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.522231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Under63c58$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7920153.7%108 W · 93 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over40c55$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3312843%55 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under48c55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.48347%39 W · 44 L-7.2wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a43…1405backed Under32c55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4148…4397backed Over57c52.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.632356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Over40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306442.2%27 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa99…2281backed Over40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+111.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3465…7082backed Under61c49.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Under61c49.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68d1…f166backed Over41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.781952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+133.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under45c48.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6512832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb18c…df51backed Over42c47.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6210648.1%51 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under60c45.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2712157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb5a…2faabacked Over52c44.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e4a…fcd8backed Under66c43.48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.73562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under59c42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.788647.7%41 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ab…2c2fbacked Over36c41.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.67837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.