Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6aa3a88c5bc76087647ea5f24a6996330f544ad2af9c98fc886a6e3f0fa88cea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,449 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 16,269$3,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,497.69 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 28c | 3,619$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.86 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 68c | 2,375$1,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.79 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 59c | 1,868$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.71 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 33c | 1,174$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.19 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 32c | 816.8$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.39 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 30c | 777.22$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.39 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 32c | 546.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.04 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 65c | 538.46$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.46 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 32c | 499.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2605…2b17backed Over | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 5c | 399.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 26c | 353.6$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.79 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 24c | 347$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 74c | 270.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 32c | 159.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…ff11backed Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 31c | 133.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 68c | 124$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked Over | 68c | 95.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 21c | 91.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 35c | 90.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 32c | 86.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 36c | 84.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Over | 67c | 82.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 67c | 66.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…78debacked Over | 79c | 66.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 63cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 67c | 64.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…700bbacked Under | 33c | 62.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Under | 34c | 48.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 34c | 48.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…bdf6backed Over | 62c | 39.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a93…36babacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 66c | 26.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 66c | 21.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…736dbacked Over | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5this page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.