Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e81001d67c31e5a082aa631546317419f7cb339a1358103510d0ebe6509c714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,818 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 6,212$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.15 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 3,820$3,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.13 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 20c | 3,171$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.39 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 16c | 1,250$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.29 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 17c | 980.76$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.73 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 788.66$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.55 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 29c | 591.54$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 28c | 529.6$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.4 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 67c | 505.9$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.59 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 71c | 496.73$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.75 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 18c | 466.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Under | 19c | 383.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.15 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 73c | 339.49$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…892fbacked Under | 50c | 335.52$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…5f66backed Under | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 17cpaid | +155.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…c230backed Under | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 14c | 299.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.99 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.99 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +128%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…06a0backed Over | 25c | 282.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +83%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 79c | 269.28$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…04b5backed Over | 50c | 248.04$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 78c | 238.46$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d54…6c91backed Under | 49c | 204.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…92ddbacked Under | 14c | 200.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 4cpaid | +842.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +99%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 16c | 189.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 45c | 181.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 21c | 168.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 16c | 127.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 29c | 103.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 13c | 100.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 68c | 82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 28c | 80.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…4632backed Over | 27c | 45.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…47a4backed Over | 64c | 40.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…6a80backed Under | 63c | 37.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…988dbacked Under | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 65c | 23.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…4f81backed Under | 60c | 17.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd418…d11fbacked Under | 71c | 14.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5this page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.