Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8de63b4b213043d86f962bb5fff46a8f1c9830f4be35639a0b5c05e6cf06bdd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 1,237$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.94 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 680.24$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 470.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 43c | 264.88$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…6805backed No | 56c | 259.08$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 43c | 210.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 56c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 11c | 168.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 54c | 126.67$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 57c | 121.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked No | 58c | 120.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 72c | 106.27$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 53c | 94.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 48c | 81.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 78.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 76.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 69.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 65.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 65.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 63.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 57c | 54.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…ca41backed Yes | 43c | 50.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 42c | 48.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 48.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 52c | 44.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 55c | 40.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 48c | 35.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 57c | 34.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked No | 68c | 33.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 33.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 33.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…6982backed No | 45c | 31.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 29.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 28.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 27.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked No | 74c | 27.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 26.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 74c | 22.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 53c | 21.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 55c | 19.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 71c | 16.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.