NHL · resolved market
KHL: Sibir Novosibirsk vs. Metallurg Magnitogorsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dfced348374eda87b0d4ebbc8e316a886564365f18f79c40ad300d678363947
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metallurg Magnitogorskof Sibir Novosibirsk, Metallurg Magnitogorsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 65c | 971$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.09 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 34c | 922.08$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.69 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 65c | 893.73$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.16 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…1302backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 36c | 870.15$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 34c | 799.99$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 32c | 660.56$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.1 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 24c | 373.07$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa706…4b9ebacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 67c | 354$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 34c | 339.57$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.45 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…d22bbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 299.96$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 36c | 280$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 76c | 279.76$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 65c | 248$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 21c | 247.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 17c | 217.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 63c | 217.14$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 19c | 206.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe96…4a6dbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 76c | 185$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…dfbebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 26c | 172.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 76c | 156.11$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 36c | 140.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 181 | 32%58 W · 123 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 66c | 136.36$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 75c | 98.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 451 | 49.4%223 W · 228 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa399…b304backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 66c | 93.06$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…d9c4backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 34c | 87.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 24c | 82.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 36c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 33c | 69.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bf…313abacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 22c | 62.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 26c | 60.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 25c | 54.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…1249backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 68c | 50.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b1…cf86backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5b…b58bbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x783f…8f90backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 72c | 45.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…04cbbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 73c | 41.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe109…d36ebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 35c | 39.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 66c | 37.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf79…796ebacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 61c | 35.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…c067backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 64c | 31.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee06…3054backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 66c | 28.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 25.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.