Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ea34c1e33bf66e50b633f3ac3c3dfa0512ed3a5746e2d467c53f441f4ab07b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 48c | 999.82$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.64 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 628.56$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.42 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 45c | 614.29$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.84 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 28c | 542.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 56c | 483.1$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.54 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 26c | 400.25$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.21 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 386.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 49c | 331.91$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 59c | 263.68$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.49 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 34c | 241.68$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.63 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…7c98backed Yes | 46c | 218.94$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.14 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 79c | 210$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.15 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 22c | 188.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.57 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 57c | 174.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 25c | 174.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 53c | 160$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 44c | 143.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 128.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 117.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 30c | 112$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 102.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 101.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 23c | 87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked No | 57c | 85.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 83.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed No | 65c | 76.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 73.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2b…0bb8backed No | 68c | 70.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 44c | 66.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 80c | 66.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 55c | 63.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 45c | 62.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 56c | 48.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 64c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 51c | 44.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 54c | 40.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 40.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2228…e009backed No | 69c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…451abacked Yes | 41c | 39.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 39.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 37.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 56c | 36.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 79c | 33.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 30.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 58c | 29.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 65c | 27.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked No | 65c | 20.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x957f…aee0backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed No | 76c | 17.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…693fbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 1?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 1?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.