La Liga · resolved market
Raphinha: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ebe4af6ecc72637ae783ceb660fdcfddcc25a42ae5b0e0f9dd34f19aa3cbb94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0e3…29ebbacked No | 49c | 2,942$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Yes | 51c | 1,728$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.64 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…7b9bbacked Yes | 51c | 1,471$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.59 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…fd7fbacked No | 51c | 1,100$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…6b98backed No | 50c | 555$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c73…cd83backed No | 55c | 498.56$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00c…4a39backed Yes | 45c | 220$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed No | 54c | 208.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24d…c330backed Yes | 50c | 202.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Yes | 47c | 201.56$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.33 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…3fedbacked Yes | 49c | 193.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 55c | 155.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x065a…4147backed Yes | 50c | 128$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2489…3356backed No | 55c | 107.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Yes | 46c | 98.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54bc…d80ebacked Yes | 45c | 93.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 55c | 67.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa875…9f99backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x837d…86dfbacked Yes | 47c | 61.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…db7abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 48c | 49.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 335 | 31.3%105 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd865…96babacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…195cbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…4817backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6719backed Yes | 45c | 39.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34f…1cfabacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299b…2fb4backed Yes | 46c | 30.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfb…550cbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 52c | 27.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 26.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 565 | 38.1%215 W · 350 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38bd…b8f3backed Yes | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…9090backed Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…fa5cbacked Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x760d…0786backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…d381backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…9070backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83b…2153backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5df…b489backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raphinha: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Fermín Lopez: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Lamine Yamal: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.