Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f61d21fd95865e99810bc4b8de956888279aa3910e01e750040d2d0719b4676
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 54c | 390.93$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.83 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 367.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 304$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 7c | 269.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 226.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 7c | 225.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 218.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 34c | 212.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 51c | 188.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 178.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 52c | 158.51$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 26c | 157.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 117.02$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 13c | 116.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 73c | 109.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 22c | 93.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 93.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 58c | 85.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 83.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 42c | 81.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 78c | 58.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 55c | 55.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 39c | 46.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 42c | 41.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 57c | 34.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0c…c6adbacked No | 54c | 34.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 33c | 34.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 39c | 31.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 69c | 24.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 66c | 21.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 77c | 20.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 69c | 16.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.