TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,276
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,543

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,276 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed30…87b1backed Yes72c356.39$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6818549.7%92 W · 93 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes32c239.63$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.526,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No70c236.89$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.6467158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No63c233.19$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1439951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No54c203$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.782,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No62c167.02$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8511169.4%77 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes41c163.77$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.445,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No72c154.75$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4254547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No70c145.04$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.522,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes30c137.06$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.411,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c135.49$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.035,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes28c135$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.21,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c134.71$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x118a…457ebacked Yes72c134.11$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.37425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No50c124.04$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.769,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No73c122.8$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9161760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes32c115.16$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.268,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes35c115$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.911,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No36c111$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.72,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No43c104$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.025,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c99.77$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No69c97$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.511,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked No60c91.04$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7232440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbec…5088backed Yes44c86.54$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.542231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick43cpaid+2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bd5…366ebacked No63c84.51$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.42040%8 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-35.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No53c83.47$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.474,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No54c80.49$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2845253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No63c80.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.082,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes34c79.07$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.191,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445f…229fbacked Yes23c78.29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2914034.3%48 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No73c76.75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.033,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No45c75.75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.054,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No72c74$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2897152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes63c72.97$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0118567.6%125 W · 60 L+28.7wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes28c72.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9296015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No63c72$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3955954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed No57c69.08$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2129345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No55c67.76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.591,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes35c64.82$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4261929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No71c56.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.91,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked No64c53.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5542061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes33c52.64$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2731836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No35c51.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0961752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No32c50.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.546457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee02…ce88backed No52c45.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5910764.5%69 W · 38 L+0.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…3a8bbacked Yes52c44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.122544%11 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes28c42.55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6915630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No72c42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2458358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes29c41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.111,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes30c40.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.682,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No31c40.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.456,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No45c40.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No52c37.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2624546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No71c36$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5675546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No69c35.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.791,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes47c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5520842.8%89 W · 119 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c34.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.974,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3023…465cbacked No65c34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.14042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes49c31.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.849545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.531766.9%212 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4941…b03cbacked No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0813363.9%85 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d3b…0a43backed No68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No64c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb58…ccd0backed No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.516065.6%105 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd85d…3700backed No72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.981855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes41c29.46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.384,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c28.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.024,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes40c28.8$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.282,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes48c28.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8337144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No50c28.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.149262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xb3bf…04aabacked No57c26.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.281060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No75c26.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7824164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f7a…07a0backed No63c21.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.279066.7%60 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No50c20.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3643563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x322c…8fe9backed No64c20.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.964870.8%34 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4df…e6cfbacked No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.813862.3%86 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.840237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eec…c8edbacked No52c19.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3419769.5%137 W · 60 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No63c19.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.273,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes78c19.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3361676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No72c17.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6870148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No58c17.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1594066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No68c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No72c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.852,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.