Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2daa57b2b81857a83a284716c91c57063c15fcbac4967aad924c606ff1ca112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 416.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 210$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 42c | 157.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 64c | 155.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 154.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 44c | 127.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 120.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 56c | 112.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 46c | 107.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 105.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 15c | 96.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 95.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 76.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 76.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 74.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 71.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…48edbacked Yes | 38c | 69.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked No | 78c | 66.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 65.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 48c | 63.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 39c | 51.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 41c | 46.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 46.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 46.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 40c | 43.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 49c | 43.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 29c | 41.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 61c | 33.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 57c | 31.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 29.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 78c | 28.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…a7b3backed Yes | 48c | 27.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 61c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 25.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 23.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked No | 54c | 23.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 55c | 21.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 19.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 54c | 19.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.