Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f822a6109a4f7226e953408ccb3ec501fe74623c9c0529471b178cf17bd76a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 1,115$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.34 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 522.95$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.71 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 511.72$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.29 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked Yes | 27c | 365.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.23 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 75c | 259.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.15 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 213.74$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.88 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 207$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 21c | 205$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 40c | 190$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.87 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 64c | 127.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 120.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 22c | 107.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 106.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 47c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 26c | 103.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 44c | 94.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 93.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 89.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 82.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked No | 77c | 71.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 27c | 70.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 56c | 58.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 57.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 50.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…0568backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 29c | 47.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 44.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 74c | 43.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 41c | 35.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 68c | 33.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 44c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…e184backed No | 71c | 30.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 76c | 28.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 37c | 28.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 27.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 80c | 24.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 80c | 24.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…a8b8backed Yes | 61c | 23.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 69c | 23.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 19.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 64c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 80c | 17.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 80c | 14.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.