Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fa1d7dc73b1a3c1425c8ac10330c8530cf6f6dea67d493a1fe142d11c933767
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,194 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5050…a397backed Yes | 37c | 2,683$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,690.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…a7c8backed Yes | 37c | 2,670$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,682.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…ea74backed Yes | 37c | 2,616$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa7…60fabacked Yes | 37c | 2,570$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 6c | 2,005$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.45 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…70a4backed No | 63c | 1,362$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…c337backed No | 63c | 1,354$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…a267backed No | 63c | 1,321$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b2…0ea0backed No | 63c | 1,316$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d53…2078backed No | 63c | 1,312$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf3…2700backed No | 63c | 1,306$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…c1edbacked No | 63c | 1,304$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…8327backed No | 63c | 1,264$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 4c | 1,259$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 872$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 17c | 803.72$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 546.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…792dbacked No | 8c | 510.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 423.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 7c | 392$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 22c | 391.02$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.15 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 30c | 354.51$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 23c | 349.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.86 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 59c | 336.27$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.66 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 334.73$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 31c | 300$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.08 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed Yes | 32c | 238.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.02 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 66c | 218.1$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed No | 77c | 210.62$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.83 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 7c | 178$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 169.31$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 7c | 158$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 52c | 153.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 149.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.64 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 16c | 139.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.2 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 18c | 136.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes | 15c | 135.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.23 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 134.31$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 120.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 57c | 120$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 119.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 43c | 116.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 115$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 29c | 101.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 98.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 25c | 89.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 36c | 89.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 86.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…aba8backed Yes | 25c | 79.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 25c | 73.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 20c | 73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 68.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 67.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 54.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 43c | 51.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 36c | 49.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 74c | 46.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…1a83backed Yes | 42c | 43.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 64c | 40.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 36c | 37.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…88f5backed Yes | 48c | 35.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 75c | 28.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 53c | 27.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 18.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 75c | 13.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.