Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd118fe8d44377d58adb7d8b9e4972b1a990a0cf910e885f58237129aef0168d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,553 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9652…1ab4backed Yes | 23c | 51,000$11,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,730 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42fd…96c0backed No | 77c | 51,000$39,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,730 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…6865backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e9…e288backed Yes | 0c | 6,533$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…53d4backed Yes | 65c | 770$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 54c | 671.09$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.13 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 647.55$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.96 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 35c | 601.07$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.11 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 76c | 507.45$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.46 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 489$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…ffcabacked No | 60c | 407.72$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5639…7246backed No | 78c | 399.17$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 355.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 67c | 318.44$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.67 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 296.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 63c | 287.67$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.03 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 15c | 271.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 21c | 229.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 71c | 224.35$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 22c | 223.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.33 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 58c | 221.43$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.53 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 43c | 204.31$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.52 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 68c | 203.94$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 39c | 200.41$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb7…6d16backed Yes | 32c | 157.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -79%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 55c | 156.82$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…0d75backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 17c | 148.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.51 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 141.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 71c | 138.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 50c | 132.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 29c | 119.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 12c | 118.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 59c | 101.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 50c | 100.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 98.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…406bbacked Yes | 27c | 98.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 26c | 81.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 80.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…d6ffbacked No | 76c | 79.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 32c | 77.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…3d55backed Yes | 39c | 66.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…98d0backed Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…062dbacked Yes | 78c | 64.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 21c | 62.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 34c | 62.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 24c | 61.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 22c | 52.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 51.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…88f5backed Yes | 28c | 50.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa470…f6bdbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 27c | 48.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 59c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…5613backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 37.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 68c | 36.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 71c | 36.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…2ddebacked No | 66c | 30.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda36…ff0fbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 76c | 29.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 77c | 29.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 59c | 27.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 69c | 25.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 80c | 24.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 54c | 24.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 23.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed Yes | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…710fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf228…8accbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 75c | 17.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 76c | 17.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…9e6fbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…b182backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 74c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca23…6080backed No | 76c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…bdd7backed Yes | 80c | 12.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.